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GBMT-1 · Research record · No. 1

§2 Incompatibility Log

childcare/baseline/incompatibility-log.md
This is a working research document from the childcare filing, published as written — including the parts later corrected. It is the underlying record for Whitepaper No. 1, not a summary of it.

Definitional and coverage incompatibilities encountered while building the baseline. Per §2's method, this list is itself an output.

# Incompatibility Consequence Disposition
1 Census PEP state file (SC-EST2024) covers 50 states + DC only — Puerto Rico and territories are separate files with different structures The committed denominator understates the §-scope population; territories were flagged in the protocol scope line and §6 Add PR/territory pull in next increment or descope explicitly per §6
2 Protocol §1.4 bands are deliberately fuzzy (0–~3, ~3–5, ~5–12); the pipeline cuts at 0–2 / 3–4 / 5–12 Age-3 children (3.69M) sit in "preschool" here but are infant/toddler in some programs (EHS runs to 3; many pre-K programs start at 4) Fixed cut documented; sensitivity check when program-specific analysis needs it
3 PEP civilian estimates vs. ACS resident population differ slightly in level and reference date Sub-1% differences at these ages, but mixing sources across tables would introduce silent inconsistency PEP is the single denominator source for all baseline tables; ACS used only for characteristics (income, employment) with the difference noted
4 NHES-ECPP "nonparental care" ≠ "paid care"; published toplines do not isolate payment H2.1 cannot be adjudicated from toplines SIPP/NSECE microdata pass scheduled
5 Licensed FCC home counts available for only 39 states (2019–2022 comparison) National FCC supply is a floor, not a count; trend direction reliable, level is not Reported as "39-state" figures, never as national totals
6 NIEER counts state-funded pre-K only — district- and city-funded programs (e.g., locally funded seats) fall outside State pre-K spending/enrollment is a floor on public preschool activity Note carried on every NIEER-sourced figure
7 Spending streams have mixed vintages (FY2025 appropriations vs. SY2023–24 NIEER) Summing across streams mixes years Single-vintage normalization scheduled for the complete inventory
8 ECPP arrangement categories overlap (children in multiple arrangements); shares sum >100% "Slots ≠ children" — §2's multiple-arrangement warning confirmed in the data structure All arrangement figures reported as participation rates, never summed
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