Extraction ledger for site/childcare/index.html and site/childcare/sources/index.html, built per Verification Protocol V3. Enumeration only — no verdicts here.
This ledger is known to under-represent inferential claims. It was produced by the cheap extraction layer, which captured numbers and dates reliably and dropped causal, statutory, and inferential assertions (4 of 12 on the guardrail section — see verification-log.md). The dropped material is recovered in ledger-inferential.md; the two files are complementary and neither is complete alone.
| ID | Claim (verbatim or tight paraphrase) | Location (file + line) | Type | Source cited in the filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P001 | Gubment Policy Whitepaper No. 1 | index.html:133 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P002 | Series GBMT-1 | index.html:133 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P003 | Filed 2026-08-03 | index.html:133 | DATE | none |
| P004 | 51.2 million American children ages 0–12 | index.html:135,162 | NUMBER | Census PEP Vintage 2024 (committed pipeline) |
| P005 | 11.1M ages 0–2 | index.html:163 | NUMBER | Census PEP Vintage 2024 |
| P006 | 7.5M ages 3–4 | index.html:164 | NUMBER | Census PEP Vintage 2024 |
| P007 | 32.6M ages 5–12 | index.html:165 | NUMBER | Census PEP Vintage 2024 |
| P008 | School-age children are 64% of the population in scope | index.html:167 | PROGRAM-FACT | America After 3PM 2025 |
| P009 | 4 in 5 middle schoolers who want a program unable to get one | index.html:167 | PROGRAM-FACT | America After 3PM 2025 |
| P010 | Full coverage requires ~2.8 million educator FTEs | index.html:143,176 | NUMBER | FTE model (committed script; Census + BLS inputs) |
| P011 | Range 1.9–3.9M educator FTEs | index.html:143,176 | NUMBER | FTE model (committed script; Census + BLS inputs) |
| P012 | ~1.05 million educator FTEs today | index.html:143,176 | NUMBER | FTE model (committed script; Census + BLS inputs) |
| P013 | ~800,000 hires per year | index.html:176 | NUMBER | FTE model (committed script; Census + BLS inputs) |
| P014 | 579,000 hires merely replace departures | index.html:176 | NUMBER | FTE model (committed script; Census + BLS inputs) |
| P015 | Childcare credential pipeline issues ~40,000 per year | index.html:176 | NUMBER | FTE model (committed script; Census + BLS inputs), CDA Council |
| P016 | Childcare's median wage is $15.41/hour | index.html:176 | NUMBER | FTE model (committed script; Census + BLS inputs), Cleveland Fed worker-flows |
| P017 | Childcare ranked 10th-lowest-paid of 825 occupations | index.html:143,176 | PROGRAM-FACT | FTE model (committed script; Census + BLS inputs), Cleveland Fed worker-flows |
| P018 | Australia's demand-side subsidy watched fees outrun it | index.html:186 | PROGRAM-FACT | Australian Dept. of Education |
| P019 | Australia: +4.4% in a representative year (fee increase) | index.html:186 | PERCENTAGE | Australian Dept. of Education |
| P020 | $24B in provider-side stabilization grants (United States) | index.html:186 | NUMBER | CEA analysis |
| P021 | Stabilization grants expiry was September 2023 | index.html:186 | DATE | CEA analysis |
| P022 | Parents unable to find care: 17.7% to 22.2% (jump after grant expiry) | index.html:186 | PERCENTAGE | CEA analysis |
| P023 | No peer-reviewed evaluation of $24B experiment exists yet | index.html:189 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P024 | Four papers mention the program; none evaluates it | index.html:189 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P025 | $15 minimum wage struck from 2021 relief act (ARP) | index.html:195 | PROGRAM-FACT | Senate parliamentarian precedent (ARP 2021) |
| P026 | Byrd rule strips provisions whose budgetary effect is "merely incidental" | index.html:195 | STATUTORY | Senate parliamentarian precedent (ARP 2021) |
| P027 | CBO's scoring of House-passed BBB title: $381.5B, 2022–31 | index.html:195 | NUMBER | CBO 57630 |
| P028 | CBO score embedded substantial state non-participation | index.html:195 | PROGRAM-FACT | CBO 57630 |
| P029 | Quebec '97: Flat-fee supply-side model | index.html:206 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P030 | Quebec: 30,688 waitlisted after 25 years | index.html:206 | NUMBER | none |
| P031 | Quebec: staffing named as cause of waitlist | index.html:206 | CAUSAL | none |
| P032 | Germany '13: Legal entitlement model | index.html:207 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P033 | Germany: Courts award money, not slots | index.html:207 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P034 | Australia: Demand subsidy model | index.html:208 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P035 | Australia: Fee inflation; strings later attached | index.html:208 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P036 | Canada '21: $10/day federal-provincial model | index.html:209 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P037 | Canada: 194K of 284K spaces (delivered vs. target) | index.html:209 | NUMBER | none |
| P038 | Canada: ~$19/day (actual vs. $10 target) | index.html:209 | NUMBER | none |
| P039 | Canada: educator shortage | index.html:209 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P040 | GA/OK/FL: Universal pre-K model | index.html:210 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P041 | GA/OK/FL: Decades durable in red states | index.html:210 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P042 | NYC '14: Municipal sprint model | index.html:211 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P043 | NYC: 60,000+ seats in two years | index.html:211 | NUMBER | none |
| P044 | US DOD: Pay parity + standards model | index.html:212 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P045 | US DOD: Works; has for decades | index.html:212 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P046 | Twelve candidate architectures scored | index.html:221 | NUMBER | Scorecard: 12 × 14 × 4, anchored scales, reconciliation log — committed |
| P047 | Fourteen anchored dimensions in scorecard | index.html:221 | NUMBER | Scorecard: 12 × 14 × 4, anchored scales, reconciliation log — committed |
| P048 | Four objective weightings in scorecard | index.html:221 | NUMBER | Scorecard: 12 × 14 × 4, anchored scales, reconciliation log — committed |
| P049 | Four designs occupy the top ranks under all weightings | index.html:221,224 | SCORECARD-BASIS | Scorecard: 12 × 14 × 4, anchored scales, reconciliation log — committed |
| P050 | Scaled Head-Start-style delivery model in top four | index.html:221 | SCORECARD-BASIS | Scorecard: 12 × 14 × 4, anchored scales, reconciliation log — committed |
| P051 | Supply-first investment in top four | index.html:221 | SCORECARD-BASIS | Scorecard: 12 × 14 × 4, anchored scales, reconciliation log — committed |
| P052 | Public option for markets private operators decline in top four | index.html:221 | SCORECARD-BASIS | Scorecard: 12 × 14 × 4, anchored scales, reconciliation log — committed |
| P053 | Federal fallback for non-participating states in top four | index.html:221 | SCORECARD-BASIS | Scorecard: 12 × 14 × 4, anchored scales, reconciliation log — committed |
| P054 | Unconditioned cash ranks last | index.html:221 | SCORECARD-BASIS | Scorecard: 12 × 14 × 4, anchored scales, reconciliation log — committed |
| P055 | Employer cost-splitting ranks last | index.html:221 | SCORECARD-BASIS | Scorecard: 12 × 14 × 4, anchored scales, reconciliation log — committed |
| P056 | ~75 school-free weekdays a year (afterschool/summer problem for school-age) | index.html:167 | NUMBER | America After 3PM 2025 |
| P057 | ~1.9 million educator FTEs lower bound | sources/index.html:158 | NUMBER | FTE model |
| P058 | ~3.9 million educator FTEs upper bound | sources/index.html:158 | NUMBER | FTE model |
| P059 | ~1.76M net new educator FTEs needed | sources/index.html:158 | NUMBER | FTE model |
| P060 | Five national programs show funding that outruns workforce produces queues, litigation, or price inflation | index.html:143 | CAUSAL | Five countries of evidence (stated in subtitle) |
| P061 | Sources & Data · Series GBMT-1 · Filed 2026-08-03 | sources/index.html:123 | DATE | none |
| P062 | Phase 0 executed across three research passes on 2026-08-03 | sources/index.html:144 | DATE | none |
| P063 | BBB childcare/pre-K title ≈ $400B / 6yr as House-passed (Nov 2021) [Anchor #1 prior] | sources/index.html:154 | NUMBER | CBO scored the childcare+pre-K provisions |
| P064 | CBO scored childcare+pre-K provisions at +$381.5B (2022–2031) [Anchor #1 verified] | sources/index.html:154 | NUMBER | CBO 57630 |
| P065 | ARPA stabilization ≈ $39B, expired 2023-09-30 [Anchor #2 prior] | sources/index.html:155 | NUMBER | confirmed |
| P066 | $24B stabilization funding expired 2023-09-30 [Anchor #2 verified] | sources/index.html:155 | NUMBER | confirmed |
| P067 | $15B CCDF supplemental wound down through September 2024 | sources/index.html:155 | NUMBER | confirmed |
| P068 | Childcare cost is ⅔–⅘ labor [Anchor #3 prior] | sources/index.html:156 | PROGRAM-FACT | verified |
| P069 | Treasury puts wages at 50–60% of expenses on US averages | sources/index.html:156 | PERCENTAGE | Treasury (committed atlas) |
| P070 | Higher percentage for infant care | sources/index.html:156 | PROGRAM-FACT | Treasury |
| P071 | Center personnel costs commonly cited at 70–80% | sources/index.html:156 | PERCENTAGE | none |
| P072 | Protocol widened range to 50–80% labor share | sources/index.html:156 | PERCENTAGE | none |
| P073 | ≈75 employment-relevant non-school weekdays per year [Anchor #4] | sources/index.html:157 | NUMBER | not yet verified - queued |
| P074 | Additional workforce needed: several hundred thousand to ~1M [Anchor #5 prior] | sources/index.html:158 | NUMBER | verified |
| P075 | FTE model puts steady-state need at 2.8M FTEs | sources/index.html:158 | NUMBER | FTE model |
| P076 | Tax-increase supermajority requirements in ≈12 states [Anchor #6 prior] | sources/index.html:159 | NUMBER | queued |
| P077 | 17 states require legislative supermajorities to raise taxes [Anchor #6 verified] | sources/index.html:159 | NUMBER | verified |
| P078 | Ballot initiative available in ≈half the states [Anchor #7] | sources/index.html:160 | PROGRAM-FACT | not yet verified - queued |
| P079 | CCDBG authorization lapsed after 2014 reauthorization [Anchor #8] | sources/index.html:161 | DATE | confirmed |
| P080 | 2014 reauthorization (P.L. 113-186) covered FY2015–FY2020 | sources/index.html:161 | DATE | P.L. 113-186 |
| P081 | Program has run on appropriations alone since 2020 | sources/index.html:161 | PROGRAM-FACT | confirmed |
| P082 | FRA 2023 discretionary caps covered FY24–25 [Anchor #9] | sources/index.html:162 | DATE | not yet verified - queued |
| P083 | Dependent care FSA cap nominally near-frozen for decades [Anchor #10 prior] | sources/index.html:163 | PROGRAM-FACT | confirmed |
| P084 | $5,000 cap dates to 1986 [Anchor #10] | sources/index.html:163 | DATE | verified |
| P085 | Raised to $7,500 effective 2026 [Anchor #10 updated] | sources/index.html:163 | NUMBER | OBBBA, signed July 2025 |
| P086 | OBBBA signed July 2025 | sources/index.html:163 | DATE | OBBBA |
| P087 | §45F persistently under-claimed relative to authorization [Anchor #11] | sources/index.html:164 | PROGRAM-FACT | not yet verified as anchor row - queued |
| P088 | Georgia universal pre-K mid-1990s [Anchor #12 prior] | sources/index.html:165 | DATE | verified |
| P089 | Oklahoma universal pre-K late 1990s [Anchor #12 prior] | sources/index.html:165 | DATE | verified |
| P090 | Florida universal pre-K mid-2000s [Anchor #12 prior] | sources/index.html:165 | DATE | verified |
| P091 | Georgia enacted universal pre-K in 1995 | sources/index.html:165 | DATE | verified |
| P092 | Georgia pre-K lottery-funded | sources/index.html:165 | PROGRAM-FACT | verified |
| P093 | Georgia pre-K ~55% of 4-year-olds | sources/index.html:165 | PERCENTAGE | verified |
| P094 | Georgia pre-K 60% of classrooms private | sources/index.html:165 | PERCENTAGE | verified |
| P095 | Oklahoma universal pre-K enacted in 1998 | sources/index.html:165 | DATE | verified |
| P096 | Oklahoma pre-K reaching over 70% of 4-year-olds | sources/index.html:165 | PERCENTAGE | verified |
| P097 | Oklahoma has nation's highest pre-K enrollment rate | sources/index.html:165 | PROGRAM-FACT | verified |
| P098 | Florida's ballot-approved program has operated since 2005 | sources/index.html:165 | DATE | verified |
| P099 | Canada CWELCC: 2021 agreements [Anchor #13] | sources/index.html:166 | DATE | verified |
| P100 | Canada CWELCC: $10/day target | sources/index.html:166 | NUMBER | verified |
| P101 | 194,000 of 284,000 targeted new spaces delivered nationally as of Sept 2025 | sources/index.html:166 | NUMBER | verified |
| P102 | Ontario fees average ≈$19/day | sources/index.html:166 | NUMBER | verified |
| P103 | $10 deadline pushed to December 2026 | sources/index.html:166 | DATE | verified |
| P104 | Ontario alone short up to 10,000 early childhood educators | sources/index.html:166 | NUMBER | verified |
| P105 | 57% of new spaces are for-profit | sources/index.html:166 | PERCENTAGE | verified |
| P106 | Active fight over lifting the for-profit cap in Canada | sources/index.html:166 | PROGRAM-FACT | verified |
| P107 | Netherlands scandal: families falsely accused and government fell (2021) [Anchor #14] | sources/index.html:167 | DATE | confirmed |
| P108 | 26,000–35,000 families wrongly ordered to repay in Netherlands scandal | sources/index.html:167 | NUMBER | verified |
| P109 | More than 2,000 children removed into custody in Netherlands scandal | sources/index.html:167 | NUMBER | verified |
| P110 | Netherlands government resigned January 2021 | sources/index.html:167 | DATE | verified |
| P111 | Ethnic profiling was documented in Netherlands scandal | sources/index.html:167 | PROGRAM-FACT | verified |
| P112 | NYC pre-K: tens of thousands of seats in ≈2 years [Anchor #15 prior] | sources/index.html:168 | NUMBER | verified |
| P113 | NYC pre-K moved from 20,000 to 53,000 full-day seats in 2014 | sources/index.html:168 | NUMBER | verified |
| P114 | More than 60,000 children enrolled in NYC pre-K within two years | sources/index.html:168 | NUMBER | verified |
| P115 | Background-check backlogs of months post-2014 CCDBG [Anchor #16] | sources/index.html:169 | PROGRAM-FACT | not yet verified - queued |
| P116 | Michigan Tri-Share: ≈equal three-way split [Anchor #17] | sources/index.html:170 | PROGRAM-FACT | not yet verified as anchor row - queued |
| P117 | Kentucky employer match [Anchor #17] | sources/index.html:170 | PROGRAM-FACT | not yet verified as anchor row - queued |
| P118 | Quebec reform 1997 [Anchor #18] | sources/index.html:171 | DATE | not yet verified as anchor row - queued |
| P119 | Germany slot entitlement from age 1 in 2013 [Anchor #18] | sources/index.html:171 | DATE | not yet verified as anchor row - queued |
| P120 | 1971 CCDA passed both chambers, vetoed [Anchor #19] | sources/index.html:172 | DATE | verified via primary source |
| P121 | CCDA vetoed December 10, 1971 | sources/index.html:172 | DATE | verified via primary source |
| P122 | Veto drafted by Pat Buchanan | sources/index.html:172 | ATTRIBUTION | verified via primary source |
| P123 | Veto framed federal childcare as favoring "communal approaches to child rearing over against the family-centered approach" | sources/index.html:172 | STATUTORY | verified via primary source |
| P124 | Veto message included "family-weakening implications" language | sources/index.html:172 | STATUTORY | verified via primary source |
| P125 | CCDBG enacted 1990 [Anchor #19] | sources/index.html:172 | DATE | verified via primary source |
| P126 | Head Start since 1965 [Anchor #20] | sources/index.html:173 | DATE | not yet verified - queued |
| P127 | Lanham centers 1943–46 [Anchor #20] | sources/index.html:173 | DATE | not yet verified - queued |
| P128 | §3 Cost & financing: Four collected cost estimates all scoped to ages 0–5 | sources/index.html:185 | PROGRAM-FACT | ws03-cost.md |
| P129 | CBO's BBB score: $381.5B | sources/index.html:185 | NUMBER | ws03-cost.md |
| P130 | Warren-style plans: $600B+ | sources/index.html:185 | NUMBER | ws03-cost.md |
| P131 | School-age is 64% of the population in scope | sources/index.html:185 | PERCENTAGE | ws03-cost.md |
| P132 | School-age absent from every collected cost model | sources/index.html:185 | PROGRAM-FACT | ws03-cost.md |
| P133 | Labor share is 50–80% of costs | sources/index.html:185 | PERCENTAGE | ws03-cost.md |
| P134 | §4 Workforce: Childcare workers earn median $15.41/hr | sources/index.html:190 | NUMBER | ws04-workforce.md |
| P135 | $15.41/hr is 10th-lowest of 825 tracked occupations | sources/index.html:190 | PROGRAM-FACT | ws04-workforce.md |
| P136 | Turnover running ~65% above a typical job | sources/index.html:190 | PROGRAM-FACT | ws04-workforce.md |
| P137 | FTE model requires ~798k hires/year at ramp | sources/index.html:190 | NUMBER | ws04-workforce.md |
| P138 | CDA credentialing pipeline producing only ~40,000/year | sources/index.html:190 | NUMBER | ws04-workforce.md |
| P139 | ~40,000/year is under a fifth of growth hiring alone | sources/index.html:190 | PROGRAM-FACT | ws04-workforce.md |
| P140 | DC's Pay Equity Fund shows wage funding fixes retention fast | sources/index.html:190 | PROGRAM-FACT | ws04-workforce.md |
| P141 | Wage parity is ~40% of incremental cost | sources/index.html:190 | PERCENTAGE | ws04-workforce.md |
| P142 | Wage parity narrowly misses being majority of incremental cost | sources/index.html:190 | PROGRAM-FACT | ws04-workforce.md |
| P143 | §5 Facilities: 46% of children under 6 live in licensed-care desert | sources/index.html:195 | PERCENTAGE | ws05-facilities.md |
| P144 | Rural deserts worsened to over 70% | sources/index.html:195 | PERCENTAGE | ws05-facilities.md |
| P145 | Broader post-pandemic recovery was non-rural | sources/index.html:195 | PROGRAM-FACT | ws05-facilities.md |
| P146 | State rates range from Alaska's 96% to DC's 5% | sources/index.html:195 | PERCENTAGE | ws05-facilities.md |
| P147 | Licensed capacity in chains sits at only ~71% staffed occupancy | sources/index.html:195 | PERCENTAGE | ws05-facilities.md |
| P148 | Licensed-capacity counts overstate real supply everywhere | sources/index.html:195 | PROGRAM-FACT | ws05-facilities.md |
| P149 | CDFI financing is working facilities-finance channel outside conventional credit | sources/index.html:195 | PROGRAM-FACT | ws05-facilities.md |
| P150 | §6 Delivery, federalism & integrity: CBO already scores state non-participation as base case | sources/index.html:199 | PROGRAM-FACT | ws06-delivery.md |
| P151 | March 2024 CCDF final rule already addressed part of admin-reform agenda | sources/index.html:200 | DATE | ws06-delivery.md |
| P152 | Germany's enforceable entitlement shows courts can force payment, not supply | sources/index.html:200 | PROGRAM-FACT | ws06-delivery.md |
| P153 | §7 Quality & cost-quality frontier: Tennessee's pre-K RCT found negative effects by 3rd grade | sources/index.html:204 | PROGRAM-FACT | ws07-quality.md |
| P154 | Tennessee VPK: worse effects by 6th grade | sources/index.html:204 | PROGRAM-FACT | ws07-quality.md |
| P155 | Tennessee VPK: more discipline and special-ed placement | sources/index.html:204 | PROGRAM-FACT | ws07-quality.md |
| P156 | Boston's lottery study found no persistent test-score effects | sources/index.html:204 | PROGRAM-FACT | ws07-quality.md |
| P157 | Boston's lottery study found real gains in high school graduation, college attendance, and college completion | sources/index.html:204 | PROGRAM-FACT | ws07-quality.md |
| P158 | Tennessee VPK: achievement gains gone by kindergarten | sources/index.html:204 | PROGRAM-FACT | ws07-quality.md |
| P159 | Tennessee VPK: negative test-score effects by 3rd grade | sources/index.html:204 | PROGRAM-FACT | ws07-quality.md |
| P160 | Quality parameters plausibly determine sign of child effects, not just size | sources/index.html:205 | PROGRAM-FACT | ws07-quality.md |
| P161 | Quality provisions are most Byrd-vulnerable part of any bill | sources/index.html:205 | STATUTORY | ws07-quality.md |
| P162 | §8 Demand: Under-3s' modal arrangement is unpaid individual care | sources/index.html:209 | PROGRAM-FACT | ws08-demand.md |
| P163 | 26.5% of under-3s in unpaid individual care (NSECE data) | sources/index.html:209 | PERCENTAGE | NSECE |
| P164 | 3–5s are mostly center-based | sources/index.html:209 | PROGRAM-FACT | ws08-demand.md |
| P165 | 42.1% of 3-5s in center-based care | sources/index.html:209 | PERCENTAGE | NSECE |
| P166 | About 40% of households with under-5s use no regular nonparental care | sources/index.html:210 | PERCENTAGE | NSECE |
| P167 | Cost burden concentrates just above current eligibility lines | sources/index.html:210 | PROGRAM-FACT | ws08-demand.md |
| P168 | Near-poor households (100–200% FPL) face worst burden | sources/index.html:210 | PROGRAM-FACT | ws08-demand.md |
| P169 | Most sub-poverty households pay $0 for childcare | sources/index.html:210 | PROGRAM-FACT | ws08-demand.md |
| P170 | School-age unmet demand hit all-time high | sources/index.html:210 | PROGRAM-FACT | ws08-demand.md |
| P171 | 5.2 million of 6.7 million middle-schoolers whose parents want afterschool can't get one | sources/index.html:210 | NUMBER | ws08-demand.md |
| P172 | §9 Market response & price effects: ARPA stabilization program is cleanest US natural experiment | sources/index.html:214 | PROGRAM-FACT | ws09-market-response.md |
| P173 | Costs fell while $24B flowed to 220,000 providers | sources/index.html:214 | NUMBER | ws09-market-response.md |
| P174 | Prices resumed rising within two quarters of expiry | sources/index.html:214 | PROGRAM-FACT | ws09-market-response.md |
| P175 | Access deteriorated within two quarters of expiry | sources/index.html:214 | PROGRAM-FACT | ws09-market-response.md |
| P176 | Supply-side grants suppressed prices | sources/index.html:214 | PROGRAM-FACT | ws09-market-response.md |
| P177 | Demand-side subsidies (Australia) inflated fees | sources/index.html:214 | PROGRAM-FACT | ws09-market-response.md |
| P178 | Chain occupancy at ~71% | sources/index.html:215 | PERCENTAGE | ws09-market-response.md |
| P179 | Served metro markets have short-run slack | sources/index.html:215 | PROGRAM-FACT | ws09-market-response.md |
| P180 | Desert markets have no short-run slack | sources/index.html:215 | PROGRAM-FACT | ws09-market-response.md |
| P181 | §10 Political economy: BBB's childcare title passed House and died in Senate with whole bill | sources/index.html:219 | PROGRAM-FACT | ws10-politics.md |
| P182 | National Head Start Association endorsed BBB's structure | sources/index.html:220 | ATTRIBUTION | ws10-politics.md |
| P183 | Georgia, Oklahoma, Florida universal pre-K survived 20–30 years across partisan turnover | sources/index.html:220 | PROGRAM-FACT | ws10-politics.md |
| P184 | DC's Pay Equity Fund remains annually contested | sources/index.html:220 | PROGRAM-FACT | ws10-politics.md |
| P185 | Durability requires dedicated revenue, not just evidence | sources/index.html:220 | PROGRAM-FACT | ws10-politics.md |
| P186 | §11 Legislative mechanics: Senate parliamentarian removed $15 minimum wage from ARP in 2021 | sources/index.html:224 | PROGRAM-FACT | ws11-legislative.md |
| P187 | Removal was on grounds budgetary effect was "merely incidental" | sources/index.html:224 | STATUTORY | ws11-legislative.md |
| P188 | Minimum-wage strike is controlling precedent for childcare wage floor | sources/index.html:224 | STATUTORY | ws11-legislative.md |
| P189 | Compensation requirements are Byrd-dead | sources/index.html:224 | STATUTORY | ws11-legislative.md |
| P190 | Compensation funding is budgetary and survives | sources/index.html:225 | STATUTORY | ws11-legislative.md |
| P191 | Quality standards fare best inside federal spending programs rather than imposed as market mandates | sources/index.html:225 | PROGRAM-FACT | ws11-legislative.md |
| P192 | §12 Private capital & employer channel: Two largest childcare chains are shrinking | sources/index.html:229 | PROGRAM-FACT | ws12-private-capital.md |
| P193 | KinderCare's occupancy fell to ~71% | sources/index.html:229 | PERCENTAGE | ws12-private-capital.md |
| P194 | KinderCare's revenue grew through price increases | sources/index.html:229 | PROGRAM-FACT | ws12-private-capital.md |
| P195 | Bright Horizons closed 90 centers in 2025 | sources/index.html:230 | NUMBER | ws12-private-capital.md |
| P196 | Bright Horizons guiding to further net closures | sources/index.html:230 | PROGRAM-FACT | ws12-private-capital.md |
| P197 | §45F employer tax credit was nearly dead before 2026 expansion | sources/index.html:230 | PROGRAM-FACT | ws12-private-capital.md |
| P198 | §45F historically: couple hundred claims, under $20M combined | sources/index.html:230 | NUMBER | ws12-private-capital.md |
| P199 | Michigan's Tri-Share ~$14M cumulative savings statewide | sources/index.html:230 | NUMBER | ws12-private-capital.md |
| P200 | Michigan Tri-Share: roughly four years timeframe | sources/index.html:230 | PROGRAM-FACT | ws12-private-capital.md |
| P201 | Private capital can't reduce core cost of care itself | sources/index.html:230 | PROGRAM-FACT | ws12-private-capital.md |
| P202 | §13 Civil society & coalitions: "Unifying Framework for the ECE Profession" | sources/index.html:234 | ATTRIBUTION | ws13-civil-society.md |
| P203 | Framework is 15-organization consensus | sources/index.html:234 | NUMBER | ws13-civil-society.md |
| P204 | Framework NAEYC-convened | sources/index.html:234 | PROGRAM-FACT | ws13-civil-society.md |
| P205 | Framework signatories include NEA, NHSA, SEIU, ZERO TO THREE | sources/index.html:234 | ATTRIBUTION | ws13-civil-society.md |
| P206 | Framework addresses credentials, pathways, and compensation | sources/index.html:234 | PROGRAM-FACT | ws13-civil-society.md |
| P207 | BBB's childcare title cleared House with coalition intact | sources/index.html:235 | PROGRAM-FACT | ws13-civil-society.md |
| P208 | §14 Architecture scorecard: 12 candidate architectures | sources/index.html:239 | NUMBER | ws14-architectures-v0.md |
| P209 | Plus 1 cash comparator | sources/index.html:239 | SCORECARD-BASIS | ws14-architectures-v0.md |
| P210 | 14 anchored dimensions | sources/index.html:239 | NUMBER | ws14-architectures-v0.md |
| P211 | Four objective weightings (equal, labor-supply-first, child-development-first, equity-first) | sources/index.html:239 | SCORECARD-BASIS | ws14-architectures-v0.md |
| P212 | Same top four under all four objective weightings, with no flips | sources/index.html:239 | SCORECARD-BASIS | ws14-architectures-v0.md |
| P213 | Head Start scaled to universal in top four | sources/index.html:240 | SCORECARD-BASIS | ws14-architectures-v0.md |
| P214 | Supply-first build-out in top four | sources/index.html:240 | SCORECARD-BASIS | ws14-architectures-v0.md |
| P215 | Public option in top four | sources/index.html:240 | SCORECARD-BASIS | ws14-architectures-v0.md |
| P216 | Federal fallback ladder in top four | sources/index.html:240 | SCORECARD-BASIS | ws14-architectures-v0.md |
| P217 | Supply-side money, compensation funded rather than mandated shared thread in top four | sources/index.html:240 | SCORECARD-BASIS | ws14-architectures-v0.md |
| P218 | Standards housed inside federal spending programs shared thread in top four | sources/index.html:240 | SCORECARD-BASIS | ws14-architectures-v0.md |
| P219 | K–12 extension wins school-age band | sources/index.html:240 | SCORECARD-BASIS | ws14-architectures-v0.md |
| P220 | Caregiver-choice allowance is only architecture matching revealed 0–2 preference | sources/index.html:240 | SCORECARD-BASIS | ws14-architectures-v0.md |
| P221 | Caregiver-choice allowance ranks mid-table overall | sources/index.html:240 | SCORECARD-BASIS | ws14-architectures-v0.md |
| P222 | §15 Precedents: Five independent national designs converge on workforce as binding constraint | sources/index.html:244 | PROGRAM-FACT | ws15-precedents.md |
| P223 | Quebec's 25-year-old program has permanent waitlist | sources/index.html:245 | PROGRAM-FACT | ws15-precedents.md |
| P224 | 30,688 children on Quebec waitlist as of May 2025 | sources/index.html:245 | NUMBER | ws15-precedents.md |
| P225 | Quebec operators attribute waitlist to staffing, not funding | sources/index.html:245 | CAUSAL | ws15-precedents.md |
| P226 | Germany's legal entitlement produces litigation and damages in staff-short cities, not more slots | sources/index.html:245 | PROGRAM-FACT | ws15-precedents.md |
| P227 | Australia's demand-side subsidy saw fees outrun subsidies | sources/index.html:245 | PROGRAM-FACT | ws15-precedents.md |
| P228 | Australia added supply-side conditions to subsidy | sources/index.html:245 | PROGRAM-FACT | ws15-precedents.md |
| P229 | Every design ignoring workforce constraint converted money into queues, litigation, or price — never capacity | sources/index.html:245 | PROGRAM-FACT | ws15-precedents.md |
| P230 | §16 Sequencing: Visible-first where capacity exists, supply-first where it doesn't | sources/index.html:249 | PROGRAM-FACT | ws16-sequencing-v0.md |
| P231 | Dedicated revenue throughout, no sunsets | sources/index.html:249 | PROGRAM-FACT | ws16-sequencing-v0.md |
| P232 | School-age sequences first (64% of children) | sources/index.html:250 | SCORECARD-BASIS | ws16-sequencing-v0.md |
| P233 | School-age has existing buildings | sources/index.html:250 | PROGRAM-FACT | ws16-sequencing-v0.md |
| P234 | School-age has proven red-state funding-formula precedent | sources/index.html:250 | PROGRAM-FACT | ws16-sequencing-v0.md |
| P235 | Then 3–4 consolidation | sources/index.html:250 | SCORECARD-BASIS | ws16-sequencing-v0.md |
| P236 | 0–2 last via supply-first-plus-caregiver-choice blend | sources/index.html:250 | SCORECARD-BASIS | ws16-sequencing-v0.md |
| P237 | Demand-side eligibility expansion only after capacity exists | sources/index.html:230 | PROGRAM-FACT | Index section 7 |
| P238 | Money buys care instead of price increases under proper sequencing | sources/index.html:230 | PROGRAM-FACT | Index section 7 |
| P239 | Reconciliation-built sunsets recreate 2023 funding cliff at scale | sources/index.html:230 | PROGRAM-FACT | Index section 7 |
| P240 | Reconciliation-built sunsets are design defect, not compromise | sources/index.html:230 | PROGRAM-FACT | Index section 7 |
| P241 | Nobody has tried fair wages at scale [honesty box] | index.html:236 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P242 | "Workforce binds" proven only for underpaying programs [honesty box] | index.html:236 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P243 | $24B experiment awaits independent evaluation [honesty box] | index.html:236 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P244 | Big chains at ~71% occupancy show price-rationed slack in metro markets [honesty box] | index.html:236 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P245 | Physical shortage is rural and infant-age [honesty box] | index.html:236 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P246 | Verdicts followed pre-registered criteria [honesty box] | index.html:236 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P247 | Survived written red team [honesty box] | index.html:236 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P248 | Scorecard awaits independent second scorer [honesty box] | index.html:236 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P249 | 15-workstream protocol [receipts] | index.html:240 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P250 | Pre-registered adjudication criteria [receipts] | index.html:240 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P251 | Committed Census/BLS pipeline [receipts] | index.html:240 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P252 | Anchor table preserving corrected errors [receipts] | index.html:240 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P253 | Deviations log (9) [receipts] | index.html:240 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P254 | Red team documented [receipts] | index.html:240 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P255 | Steelman documented [receipts] | index.html:240 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P256 | Three passes, all public [receipts] | index.html:240 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P257 | 14-workstream protocol [sources receipts] | sources/index.html:300 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P258 | Pre-registered adjudication criteria written before evidence [sources receipts] | sources/index.html:300 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P259 | Anchor table preserving corrected priors (20 rows, 8 still blank by rule) [sources receipts] | sources/index.html:300 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P260 | Deviations log (9 entries) [sources receipts] | sources/index.html:300 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P261 | Formal architecture scorecard, 12 designs + cash comparator [sources receipts] | sources/index.html:300 | SCORECARD-BASIS | none |
| P262 | Scorecard: 14 anchored dimensions [sources receipts] | sources/index.html:300 | SCORECARD-BASIS | none |
| P263 | Scorecard: 4 objective weightings [sources receipts] | sources/index.html:300 | SCORECARD-BASIS | none |
| P264 | Stable top-4 scorecard result [sources receipts] | sources/index.html:300 | SCORECARD-BASIS | none |
| P265 | Red team applied (5 attacks, 3 confidence downgrades) [sources receipts] | sources/index.html:300 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P266 | Symmetric feasibility steelman built [sources receipts] | sources/index.html:300 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P267 | Deviations #1: H2.1 adjudicated from NSECE snapshots rather than microdata | sources/index.html:263 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P268 | Deviations #1 effect: Precision reduced by unknown margin | sources/index.html:263 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P269 | Deviations #1 effect: Direction unaffected | sources/index.html:263 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P270 | Deviations #2, 5, 6: Scorecard method run at reduced independence | sources/index.html:264 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P271 | Deviations #2, 5, 6: Double-scoring done as same-analyst shuffled re-score | sources/index.html:264 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P272 | Deviations #2, 5, 6: Protocol's 23 dimensions consolidated to 14 | sources/index.html:264 | NUMBER | none |
| P273 | Deviations #2, 5, 6: Re-score sample covered 3 of 12 architectures | sources/index.html:264 | NUMBER | none |
| P274 | Deviations #2, 5, 6 effect: Top-4 set and order held unchanged | sources/index.html:264 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P275 | Deviations #2, 5, 6 requirement: Full independent re-score by second reviewer remains standing | sources/index.html:264 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P276 | Deviations #3: §16 sequencing drafted (v0) before §14 scorecard ran | sources/index.html:265 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P277 | Deviations #3: Sequencing re-checked against scorecard; no material discrepancy | sources/index.html:265 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P278 | Deviations #3: Ordering is provisional pending formalization | sources/index.html:265 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P279 | Deviations #4: FTE model uses representative national ratios rather than state-by-state | sources/index.html:266 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P280 | Deviations #4: National totals robust to ±1 ratio point (sensitivity tested) | sources/index.html:266 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P281 | Deviations #4: State-level detail remains queued | sources/index.html:266 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P282 | Deviations #7, 8: Anchor rows closed incrementally across passes | sources/index.html:267 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P283 | Deviations #7, 8: Rows 6, 10, 14, 15 closed by pass 3 | sources/index.html:267 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P284 | Deviations #7, 8: Rows 4, 7, 9, 11, 16, 17, 18, 20 remain blank | sources/index.html:267 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P285 | Deviations #7, 8: Two-source rule enforced throughout | sources/index.html:267 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P286 | Deviations #7, 8: Blank rows unfilled, not guessed | sources/index.html:267 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P287 | Deviations #7, 8: None treated as load-bearing | sources/index.html:267 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P288 | Deviations #9: Academic-literature replication check for ARPA price-suppression attempted | sources/index.html:268 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P289 | Deviations #9: OpenAlex full-corpus search returned 4 items, none evaluative | sources/index.html:268 | NUMBER | none |
| P290 | Deviations #9 effect: Treated as literature not yet existing | sources/index.html:268 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P291 | Deviations #9 effect: ws09 conclusion holds at single-source-family confidence | sources/index.html:268 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P292 | Deviations #9: Known-Unknowns Register entry added | sources/index.html:268 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P293 | Red team Attack 1: "workforce binds" may be artifact of underpaying programs | sources/index.html:278 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P294 | Red team Attack 1: Partially lands | sources/index.html:278 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P295 | Red team Attack 1: Every failing case set wages low before discovering shortage | sources/index.html:279 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P296 | Red team Attack 1: DC experience supports attack on retention | sources/index.html:279 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P297 | Red team Attack 1: FTE model's ~798k/yr hiring is labor-market-scale movement untested at wage | sources/index.html:279 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P298 | Red team Attack 1: Amended to workforce binds at any historically attempted wage | sources/index.html:279 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P299 | Red team Attack 2: ARPA price finding is pandemic artifact from interested source | sources/index.html:282 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P300 | Red team Attack 2: Lands on sourcing, not direction | sources/index.html:282 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P301 | Red team Attack 2: White House CEA analyzed its own program during pandemic distortion | sources/index.html:283 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P302 | Red team Attack 2: Two-source rule not cleanly met | sources/index.html:283 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P303 | Red team Attack 2: Post-cliff access deterioration harder to attribute to pandemic in 2024 | sources/index.html:283 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P304 | Red team Attack 2: Amended downgraded to supported-moderate, single-source-family | sources/index.html:283 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P305 | Red team Attack 3: chain occupancy at 71% shows demand softness, not staffing | sources/index.html:286 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P306 | Red team Attack 3: Lands as segmentation | sources/index.html:286 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P307 | Red team Attack 3: KinderCare enrollment fell while prices rose | sources/index.html:287 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P308 | Red team Attack 3: In chain-served markets, demand is genuinely the margin | sources/index.html:287 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P309 | Red team Attack 3: Deserts (rural, 70%+) are supply-starved | sources/index.html:287 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P310 | Red team Attack 3: Chain-served metros show price-rationed demand with slack | sources/index.html:287 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P311 | Red team Attack 4: supply-first is politically fatal, scorecard buries it | sources/index.html:290 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P312 | Red team Attack 4: Partially lands | sources/index.html:290 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P313 | Red team Attack 4: Voters see nothing for years under pure supply-first | sources/index.html:291 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P314 | Red team Attack 4: Durability score for supply-first architecture is low | sources/index.html:291 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P315 | Red team Attack 4: Georgia and Oklahoma delivered visible universal seats fast | sources/index.html:291 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P316 | Red team Attack 4: GA/OK delivered at modest quality | sources/index.html:291 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P317 | Red team Attack 4: GA/OK succeeded specifically where school capacity already existed | sources/index.html:291 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P318 | Red team Attack 4: Sequence restated as "visible-first where capacity exists, supply-first where it doesn't" | sources/index.html:291 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P319 | Red team Attack 5: stable top-4 reflects correlated scoring, not evidence | sources/index.html:294 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P320 | Red team Attack 5: Cannot be fully rebutted from inside | sources/index.html:294 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P321 | Red team Attack 5: All four winners embody same analyst's conclusions | sources/index.html:295 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P322 | Red team Attack 5: If scores encode priors, stability measures internal consistency not truth | sources/index.html:295 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P323 | Red team Attack 5: Anchored scales authored first, cited cells, sample re-score reduce but don't eliminate | sources/index.html:295 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P324 | Red team Attack 5: Independent re-score by second reviewer remains standing requirement | sources/index.html:295 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P325 | Status: Draft pending second scorer [main page] | index.html:247 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |
| P326 | Status: Draft pending second scorer [sources page] | sources/index.html:307 | PROGRAM-FACT | none |