Extraction ledger for childcare/docs/, childcare/research/, and childcare/baseline/, built per Verification Protocol V3. Enumeration only — no verdicts here.
Same caveat as ledger-public.md: produced by the cheap extraction layer, so inferential claims are under-represented relative to numeric ones. Carries the deeper record's claims, which future filings cite and which must be sound even where the public never sees them.
Claim Extraction Ledger — GBMT-1 Childcare Filing
| ID | Claim (verbatim or tight paraphrase) | Location (file + line) | Type | Source cited in the record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R001 | US children ages 0–12, civilian population: 51,238,687 as of July 1, 2024 | baseline-v0.md:14 | ANCHOR | Census PEP Vintage 2024 |
| R002 | Infant/toddler (0–2): 11,085,434 children | baseline-v0.md:11 | NUMBER | Census PEP Vintage 2024 |
| R003 | Preschool (3–4): 7,513,880 children | baseline-v0.md:12 | NUMBER | Census PEP Vintage 2024 |
| R004 | School-age (5–12): 32,639,373 children | baseline-v0.md:13 | NUMBER | Census PEP Vintage 2024 |
| R005 | Age-0 cohort is 3.62M vs. 4.17M at age 9 — a ~13% decline across a decade of births | baseline-v0.md:19 | NUMBER | Census PEP, inferred from data |
| R006 | School-age is 64% of the 0–12 population | baseline-v0.md:20 | NUMBER | Calculated from denominators |
| R007 | 59% of children ≤5 and not yet in kindergarten were in at least one weekly nonparental care arrangement | baseline-v0.md:24 | NUMBER | 2019 NHES-ECPP via NCES |
| R008 | Among participants in nonparental care: 62% center-based | baseline-v0.md:24 | NUMBER | 2019 NHES-ECPP via NCES |
| R009 | Among participants in nonparental care: 38% relative care | baseline-v0.md:24 | NUMBER | 2019 NHES-ECPP via NCES |
| R010 | Among participants in nonparental care: 20% nonrelative | baseline-v0.md:24 | NUMBER | 2019 NHES-ECPP via NCES |
| R011 | CCDF discretionary + mandatory spending: ≈$12B, FY2025 | baseline-v0.md:31 | NUMBER | FFYF |
| R012 | Head Start spending: ≈$12B, FY2025 | baseline-v0.md:32 | NUMBER | FFYF |
| R013 | State pre-K spending: $13.6B including $257M COVID relief, SY2023–24 | baseline-v0.md:33 | NUMBER | NIEER 2024 Yearbook |
| R014 | 21st CCLC (school-age) spending: $1.329B, FY2025 | baseline-v0.md:34 | NUMBER | Afterschool Alliance |
| R015 | PDG B-5 spending: $315M, FY2025 | baseline-v0.md:35 | NUMBER | FFYF |
| R016 | Four states (CA, NJ, NY, TX) account for >50% of all state pre-K spending | baseline-v0.md:38 | CAUSAL | NIEER |
| R017 | Licensed FCC homes: 106,889 (2019) → 94,936 (2022) — an ~11% decline — in the 39 states with available data | baseline-v0.md:42 | NUMBER | Urban Institute / CCAoA |
| R018 | Licensed centers: returned to and surpassed pre-pandemic counts in 2022, +3% from 2021→2022 | baseline-v0.md:43 | NUMBER | CCAoA Catalyzing Growth |
| R019 | BBB cost (CBO, House-passed): $381.5B / 2022–31 | baseline-v0.md:9 | ANCHOR | CBO 57630 |
| R020 | Warren-style universal 0–5 plans: ≈$600B+ / 10 yr | ws03-cost.md:10 | ANCHOR | Cornell tip sheet |
| R021 | BPC cost-of-the-gap: $216–329B / 10 yr in lost output | ws03-cost.md:11 | NUMBER | BPC |
| R022 | Current family price (demand-side scale): avg $13,128/child/yr — 10% of dual-, 35% of single-income earnings | ws03-cost.md:12 | ANCHOR | BPC 2025 |
| R023 | Childcare workers median wage: 15.41/hr/ 32,050/yr (May 2024) | ws04-workforce.md:7 | NUMBER | BLS OEWS, CSCCE Index 2024 |
| R024 | Childcare workers: 10th lowest of 825 occupations with published wage data | ws04-workforce.md:7 | PROGRAM-FACT | BLS OEWS |
| R025 | National median occupational wage: $49,500 | ws04-workforce.md:7 | NUMBER | BLS |
| R026 | Cleveland Fed: occupational exit from childcare ran ~65% above a typical job (2010–2022) | ws04-workforce.md:9 | CAUSAL | Cleveland Fed |
| R027 | DC Pay Equity Fund: 64% same-center retention when educators left, most exited the DC field entirely | ws04-workforce.md:12 | PROGRAM-FACT | Urban Institute (May 2025) / ERIC ED673560 |
| R028 | Mathematica: DC Pay Equity Fund one-year ROI of 23% | ws04-workforce.md:13 | NUMBER | Results for America |
| R029 | DC Pay Equity Fund: $70M appropriated for FY26 vs. $92.4M needed for full funding in FY27 | ws04-workforce.md:14 | NUMBER | The 74 |
| R030 | FTE requirement: 2.8M FTEs central (1.9–3.9M range); net new ≈1.76M | ws04-workforce.md:22 | ANCHOR | FTE model (baseline/scripts/fte_model.py) |
| R031 | Required hiring flow at central ramp: ≈798k hires/yr (220k growth + 579k turnover replacement) | ws04-workforce.md:20 | ANCHOR | FTE model |
| R032 | Current childcare workforce: ≈1.05M jobs pre-pandemic | baseline-v0.md:32 | ANCHOR | BLS CES |
| R033 | CDA credentials issued: ~40,000 CDA credentials/yr including renewals | ws04-workforce.md:25 | NUMBER | CDA Council |
| R034 | Pipeline throughput vs. net-new requirement: ~40,000 vs ~220k/yr — under 20% of growth hiring | ws04-workforce.md:25 | CAUSAL | CDA Council data |
| R035 | Private family spending for young children: ~$42B/yr (2020) | ws04-workforce.md:27 | ANCHOR | Treasury/CNBC |
| R036 | Wage parity delta: $45.9B/yr = 65% of the wage increment but ≈42% of the plausible total increment | ws04-workforce.md:21 | NUMBER | FTE model calculation |
| R037 | Steady state at parity, full 0–12 scope, central scenario: ≈$209B/yr | ws04-workforce.md:21 | ANCHOR | FTE model |
| R038 | Deserts: 46% of children under 6 live in a licensed-care desert (2025) | ws05-facilities.md:7 | NUMBER | CAP, FFYF |
| R039 | Desert proportion improved from 51% of Americans (2018) to 46% (2025) | ws05-facilities.md:7 | CAUSAL | CAP, FFYF |
| R040 | Rural deserts worsened to >70% from ~66% | ws05-facilities.md:7 | NUMBER | CAP, FFYF |
| R041 | Post-pandemic supply recovery was non-rural | ws05-facilities.md:8 | CAUSAL | CAP, FFYF |
| R042 | State spread on deserts: AK 96%, HI 95%, ID 83% vs. DC 5%, MA 21% | ws05-facilities.md:7 | NUMBER | CAP, FFYF |
| R043 | Canada's CWELCC: 194,000 of 284,000 targeted new spaces delivered nationally (as of Sept 30, 2025) | phase0-findings.md:14 | NUMBER | none stated |
| R044 | Ontario delivered ~36,000 of 48,000 CWELCC spaces | phase0-findings.md:14 | NUMBER | none stated |
| R045 | Ontario fees average ≈$19/day, not $10; the $10 deadline has been extended to December 31, 2026 | phase0-findings.md:15 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R046 | Ontario alone needs up to 10,000 more ECEs; centres report unfilled existing spaces because they cannot staff them | phase0-findings.md:16 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R047 | 57% of new spaces in Canada are for-profit | phase0-findings.md:17 | NUMBER | none stated |
| R048 | Ontario is pushing to lift the for-profit cap in its federal agreement | phase0-findings.md:17 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R049 | CBO BBB score ($381.5B vs. $400B line item) embeds an assumption of substantial state non-participation | phase0-findings.md:23 | CAUSAL | CBO 57630 |
| R050 | Protocol §1.4 bands: 0–~3, ~3–5, ~5–12 | research-inquiry.md:63-66 | STATUTORY | none (protocol specification) |
| R051 | Roughly 75 non-school weekdays a year for school-age children (summer, breaks, holidays, in-service days) | research-inquiry.md:66 | NUMBER | none stated |
| R052 | ~180 non-school days historically counted weekends; corrected to ~75 weekdays employment-relevant | protocol-review.md:137 | NUMBER | none stated |
| R053 | Income surtax (Multnomah County Preschool for All) is an example revenue instrument | research-inquiry.md:110 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R054 | New Mexico 2022 constitutional amendment dedicating Land Grant Permanent Fund revenue | research-inquiry.md:274 | STATUTORY | none stated |
| R055 | Vermont Act 76 (2023, payroll-tax funded) | research-inquiry.md:274 | STATUTORY | none stated |
| R056 | Georgia: lottery-funded universal 4s, mid-1990s | protocol-review.md:18 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated (but confirmed in ws15) |
| R057 | Georgia universal pre-K coverage rate: ~55% | protocol-review.md:48 | NUMBER | none stated |
| R058 | Oklahoma: universal pre-K, late 1990s; >70% of 4-year-olds covered | protocol-review.md:18, protocol-review.md:48 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated (but verified in Phase 0) |
| R059 | Oklahoma: pre-K inside the school aid formula, no new program apparatus | protocol-review.md:48 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R060 | Florida: universal VPK by constitutional amendment, mid-2000s | protocol-review.md:18 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R061 | The 1971 bill (CCDA) passed both chambers | research-inquiry.md:269 | STATUTORY | none stated |
| R062 | The 1971 bill was vetoed (read the veto message) | research-inquiry.md:269 | STATUTORY | none stated |
| R063 | Build Back Better childcare/pre-K title was House-passed in Nov 2021 | research-inquiry.md:119 | STATUTORY | none stated |
| R064 | Build Back Better childcare title died in the Senate | ws10-politics.md:8 | STATUTORY | none stated |
| R065 | Head Start Act is federal-to-local, bypassing states, with its own standards and designation-renewal system | research-inquiry.md:335 | STATUTORY | none stated |
| R066 | CCDF authorization lapsed after its 2014 reauthorization period while appropriations continued | research-inquiry.md:303 | STATUTORY | none stated |
| R067 | Reconciliation bills are limited to one per budget resolution in practice | research-inquiry.md:294 | STATUTORY | none stated |
| R068 | Byrd rule: provisions whose budgetary effect is incidental to their policy purpose are strippable | research-inquiry.md:292 | STATUTORY | none stated |
| R069 | The $15 minimum wage was struck from the American Rescue Plan (2021) | ws11-legislative.md:7 | STATUTORY | Manhattan Institute, EPIC |
| R070 | The parliamentarian found a wage mandate's budgetary effects "merely incidental" to a private-sector transfer | ws11-legislative.md:7 | STATUTORY | Manhattan Institute, EPIC |
| R071 | BBB immigration provisions were struck as non-budgetary | ws11-legislative.md:8 | STATUTORY | AILA |
| R072 | KinderCare Q2 2025: revenue $700.1M (+1.5% YoY) but same-center occupancy declined 130bp to ~71% | ws12-private-capital.md:7 | NUMBER | KinderCare earnings coverage |
| R073 | KinderCare full-time enrollment −1.4% YoY | ws12-private-capital.md:7 | NUMBER | KinderCare earnings coverage |
| R074 | Bright Horizons 2025: closed 90 centers | ws12-private-capital.md:8 | NUMBER | TheStreet |
| R075 | Bright Horizons guiding to net −25 to −30 centers for the year | ws12-private-capital.md:8 | NUMBER | Bright Horizons 10-Q |
| R076 | Bright Horizons center-occupancy distribution: 44% >70% / 44% 40–70% / 12% <40% enrolled | ws12-private-capital.md:8 | NUMBER | Bright Horizons 10-Q |
| R077 | Chain occupancy at ~71% | ws09-market-response.md:14 | NUMBER | KinderCare Q2 2025 data |
| R078 | ~29% slack in chain-served markets | ws09-market-response.md:14 | NUMBER | Calculated from 71% occupancy |
| R079 | §45F (employer-provided childcare credit): GAO — only a couple hundred claims, <$20M combined (2016) | ws12-private-capital.md:14 | NUMBER | GAO via TPC, CRS |
| R080 | §45F recently expanded: credit to $500K, 40% of expenditures; $600K/50% small-business | ws12-private-capital.md:14 | STATUTORY | BPC, IRS |
| R081 | Tri-Share Michigan: $14M cumulative family savings since 2021 | ws12-private-capital.md:15 | NUMBER | MiLEAP |
| R082 | Tri-Share replicas in: OH, WV, CT, ND, IN, MO | ws12-private-capital.md:15 | PROGRAM-FACT | EdSurge |
| R083 | $14M Michigan savings over ~4 years ≈ ~1,000 child-years of average-priced care | ws12-private-capital.md:15 | CAUSAL | MiLEAP data |
| R084 | Dependent care FSA (DCAP) cap has been nominally near-frozen for decades | research-inquiry.md:397 | STATUTORY | none stated |
| R085 | DCAP raised to $7,500 for 2026 | README.md:3 | STATUTORY | BLS/IRS |
| R086 | Australia demand-side subsidy: fees have outrun subsidy increases (avg hourly fee +4.4% YoY) | ws15-precedents.md:20 | CAUSAL | Guardian/pressreader |
| R087 | Quebec 1997–present: 30,688 children on the waiting list as of May 31, 2025 | ws15-precedents.md:7 | NUMBER | CBC |
| R088 | Quebec estimated shortage: >60,000 spots | ws15-precedents.md:7 | NUMBER | CBC |
| R089 | Quebec subsidy queue in place for 25+ years | ws15-precedents.md:9 | CAUSAL | CBC 2021 |
| R090 | Germany 2013– : Legal entitlement to a place from age 1 | ws15-precedents.md:13 | STATUTORY | Handbook Germany |
| R091 | Germany courts have ruled staff shortages do not void the entitlement | ws15-precedents.md:14 | STATUTORY | The Local, Handbook Germany |
| R092 | Germany multi-year waits persist in major cities despite the entitlement | ws15-precedents.md:15 | PROGRAM-FACT | The Local |
| R093 | ARPA stabilization program: $24B expended | ws09-market-response.md:5 | NUMBER | CEA analysis |
| R094 | During ARPA: costs fell while funds flowed; 220k providers sustained | ws09-market-response.md:9-10 | CAUSAL | CEA |
| R095 | After ARPA expiry: prices resumed rising; parents lacking access 17.7% → 22.2% in two quarters | ws09-market-response.md:10 | CAUSAL | CEA, NWLC |
| R096 | 11 states + DC self-funded stopgaps after ARPA cliff | ws09-market-response.md:10 | PROGRAM-FACT | NWLC |
| R097 | Access deterioration after ARPA stabilization cliff: rose 17.7% → 22.2% (fall 2023 → spring 2024) | ws08-demand.md:10 | NUMBER | CEA |
| R098 | Under-3s most commonly in individual unpaid care (26.5%, NSECE 2019) | ws08-demand.md:7 | NUMBER | ACF/NSECE |
| R099 | 3–5s most commonly in center-based care (42.1%, NSECE 2019) | ws08-demand.md:7 | NUMBER | ACF/NSECE |
| R100 | ~40% of households with under-5s use no regular nonparental care | ws08-demand.md:8 | NUMBER | NSECE (~60% use CCEE regularly) |
| R101 | 73% of sub-poverty households pay $0 out of pocket (Head Start, subsidies, kin care) | ws08-demand.md:9 | NUMBER | NSECE cost-burden snapshot |
| R102 | Near-poor (100–200% FPL) face the worst burdens, >20% of income | ws08-demand.md:9 | NUMBER | NSECE cost-burden snapshot |
| R103 | America After 3PM 2025: unmet afterschool demand at all-time high | ws08-demand.md:11 | PROGRAM-FACT | Afterschool Alliance |
| R104 | 6.7M middle-school students' parents want afterschool program; 5.2M (nearly 4 in 5) can't get one | ws08-demand.md:11 | NUMBER | America After 3PM 2025, Wallace |
| R105 | Tennessee VPK: RCT found achievement gains gone by end of kindergarten | ws07-quality.md:7 | CAUSAL | AERA Open RD design |
| R106 | Tennessee VPK: negative effects on state test scores by 3rd grade, larger by 6th | ws07-quality.md:7 | CAUSAL | AERA Open RD, 6th-grade follow-up |
| R107 | Tennessee VPK: more disciplinary infractions, worse attendance, more special-ed placement | ws07-quality.md:7 | CAUSAL | Vanderbilt |
| R108 | Boston pre-K lottery experiment: +6pp high-school graduation, +5pp college attendance, +5pp college graduation | ws07-quality.md:8 | CAUSAL | NBER w28756 |
| R109 | Boston pre-K: fewer suspensions | ws07-quality.md:8 | CAUSAL | NBER w28756 |
| R110 | Boston Weiland et al. 2025: no lasting test benefits through middle school | ws07-quality.md:8 | CAUSAL | EdWorkingPapers |
| R111 | The 1971 CCDA passed both chambers | ws10-politics.md:5 | STATUTORY | none stated (framing via recollection) |
| R112 | 1971 Nixon veto framed federal childcare as against the "family-centered approach" | ws10-politics.md:5 | ATTRIBUTION | none stated (recollected language) |
| R113 | NHSA endorsed BBB's structure | ws10-politics.md:9 | PROGRAM-FACT | NHSA press release |
| R114 | Red-state universal pre-K (GA/OK/FL): 20–30 years durable across partisan turnover | ws10-politics.md:14 | CAUSAL | ws15 documentation |
| R115 | DC PEF: proven program, annually contested funding, funded below requirement | ws10-politics.md:13 | PROGRAM-FACT | ws04 documentation |
| R116 | ARPA cliff: temporary funding built capacity that visibly collapsed on schedule | ws10-politics.md:15 | CAUSAL | ws09 documentation |
| R117 | The Unifying Framework for the ECE Profession: 15-organization consensus artifact | ws13-civil-society.md:7 | PROGRAM-FACT | NAEYC |
| R118 | Signatories to Unifying Framework include: NEA, NHSA, SEIU, ZERO TO THREE | ws13-civil-society.md:7 | PROGRAM-FACT | NAEYC |
| R119 | California 2020 collective-bargaining win for family child care providers (AFSCME) | ws13-civil-society.md:12 | STATUTORY | AFSCME, EdSource |
| R120 | BBB childcare title passed the House intact | ws13-civil-society.md:15 | STATUTORY | ws10 documentation |
| R121 | BBB childcare title wasn't killed by coalition fracture; it died with its vehicle | ws13-civil-society.md:15 | CAUSAL | ws10 documentation |
| R122 | Medicaid holdout states: FL/GA overlap identified | README.md:5 | PROGRAM-FACT | KFF Medicaid expansion data |
| R123 | 10 verified Medicaid holdout states | README.md:5 | NUMBER | KFF |
| R124 | Georgia 1995: first universal pre-K; lottery; mixed delivery | phase0-findings.md:33 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R125 | Oklahoma 1998: funding formula; >70% of 4s | phase0-findings.md:33 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R126 | Florida: ballot-approved, operating 2005 | phase0-findings.md:33 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R127 | Labor share: Treasury floor is 50–60%, center personnel commonly 70–80% | phase0-findings.md:31 | NUMBER | Treasury; centers data |
| R128 | Protocol's ⅔–⅘ was too narrow at the bottom (labor share verification) | phase0-findings.md:31 | CAUSAL | phase0-findings verification |
| R129 | Baker–Gruber–Milligan (NBER w11832): 271 citations | phase0-findings.md:38 | ATTRIBUTION | OpenAlex |
| R130 | Cornelissen et al. (JPE 2018): cited in searches | phase0-findings.md:38 | ATTRIBUTION | OpenAlex |
| R131 | BGM long-run follow-up (AEJ:Policy 2019): cited in searches | phase0-findings.md:38 | ATTRIBUTION | OpenAlex |
| R132 | OpenAlex's free API returned the §0.2 canon on the first query | phase0-findings.md:37 | PROGRAM-FACT | OpenAlex |
| R133 | Semantic Scholar's API is a backup channel | phase0-findings.md:44 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R134 | No MCP connector for academic search exists in the registry as of this date | phase0-findings.md:44 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated (date: 2026-08-03) |
| R135 | Oklahoma's funding-formula route: pre-K inside the school aid formula, no new program apparatus | phase0-findings.md:48 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R136 | Red-state scan surfaced coverage rates: GA ~55%, OK >70% of 4-year-olds | phase0-findings.md:48 | NUMBER | phase0-findings |
| R137 | Protocol review identified case-selection bias toward progressive jurisdictions | protocol-review.md:14-22 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R138 | The protocol's US state cases are all recent, all progressive, all primarily financing wins | protocol-review.md:15 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R139 | Red-state universal pre-K proof that universality can be enacted and durable in conservative states | protocol-review.md:18 | ATTRIBUTION | protocol-review.md |
| R140 | Florida: high coverage, low standards, low cost | protocol-review.md:18 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R141 | Georgia's lottery earmark is a revenue instrument missing from §3's list | protocol-review.md:18 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R142 | Canada's 2021 federal-provincial $10/day agreements (CWELCC) are the natural experiment | protocol-review.md:19 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R143 | Canada's CWELCC has observable results: reported fee reductions, expansion shortfalls, workforce shortages, for-profit-participation fight | protocol-review.md:19 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R144 | UK's free-hours entitlement: funded rate persistently below delivery cost produced provider exits | protocol-review.md:20 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R145 | Netherlands childcare benefits scandal: falsely accused thousands of families of fraud, disproportionately immigrant backgrounds | protocol-review.md:20 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R146 | Netherlands scandal brought down a government | protocol-review.md:20 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R147 | NYC pre-K scale-up: tens of thousands of seats in about two years | protocol-review.md:20 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R148 | Home-care allowance of the kind several countries operate; Finland's is the canonical case | protocol-review.md:25 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R149 | CCDF already permits relative-caregiver payment at the margins | protocol-review.md:25 | STATUTORY | none stated |
| R150 | Home-care allowances measurably depress maternal employment (Nordic literature) | protocol-review.md:25 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R151 | Home-care allowances poll well with exactly the constituencies every other architecture alienates | protocol-review.md:25 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R152 | §1.2 gestures at objective function (child vs. parent entitlement) but scorecard has no objective attached | protocol-review.md:36 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R153 | The protocol's hypothesis set tilts uniformly skeptical | protocol-review.md:41 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R154 | The protocol provides no mechanism to falsify its pessimistic priors | protocol-review.md:41 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R155 | The protocol's source lists are convenience samples from the author's memory rather than the product of a search procedure | protocol-review.md:9 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R156 | The empirical economics literature is almost entirely missing from the protocol | protocol-review.md:52 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R157 | Childcare-market microeconomics canon: Blau, Herbst on subsidies, Handbook chapters | protocol-review.md:52 | ATTRIBUTION | none stated |
| R158 | Quasi-experimental universal-program literature: Havnes–Mogstad on Norway, Cornelissen et al. on Germany, Fort–Ichino–Zanella on Bologna | protocol-review.md:52 | ATTRIBUTION | none stated |
| R159 | Tulsa/Gormley pre-K studies are the most-studied US universal programs | protocol-review.md:52 | ATTRIBUTION | none stated |
| R160 | The scorecard has no scoring method; as written, nothing constrains 190 judgment calls | protocol-review.md:59-60 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R161 | The implicit equal weighting of scorecard dimensions is itself a hidden judgment | protocol-review.md:60 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R162 | §12.4 instructs checking whether funder concentration causes certain design options to receive systematically less analytical attention | protocol-review.md:28 | ATTRIBUTION | protocol-review.md |
| R163 | The protocol then omitted home-based care and cash-to-families from its own architecture list | protocol-review.md:28 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R164 | Program integrity is missing entirely from the protocol | protocol-review.md:70 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R165 | Improper-payment findings in CCDF are a recurring GAO/OIG theme | protocol-review.md:74 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R166 | Recent political history includes a headline nine-figure pandemic-era fraud case in child-nutrition space | protocol-review.md:74 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R167 | Netherlands ran aggressive algorithmic fraud detection on childcare benefits | protocol-review.md:75 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R168 | Netherlands falsely accused thousands of families — disproportionately immigrant backgrounds | protocol-review.md:75 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R169 | Netherlands clawed back benefits ruinously | protocol-review.md:75 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R170 | Netherlands scandal collapsed a government | protocol-review.md:75 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R171 | Demand-side architectures inherit the Netherlands risk class wholesale | protocol-review.md:75 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R172 | Attendance-based payment destabilizes providers | protocol-review.md:77 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R173 | Integrity pressure pushes toward attendance-basis | protocol-review.md:77 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R174 | Liability insurance is a documented center-closer | protocol-review.md:81 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R175 | FCC entry is a hard constraint on FCC entry (liability) | protocol-review.md:81 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R176 | The school-age workforce is a different labor pool from the 0–5 workforce | protocol-review.md:83 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R177 | Post-2014 CCDBG comprehensive-check requirements produced months-long processing backlogs in some states | protocol-review.md:84 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated (to be verified) |
| R178 | At ramp speed, check-processing capacity is a binding input alongside credentialing | protocol-review.md:84 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R179 | CCDF has tribal set-asides with distinct rules and government-to-government relationship | protocol-review.md:85 | STATUTORY | none stated |
| R180 | Territories have their own funding treatment | protocol-review.md:85 | STATUTORY | none stated |
| R181 | Nordic and Quebec literatures on fertility effects; second-order but compounding over decade | protocol-review.md:86 | ATTRIBUTION | none stated |
| R182 | Interstate migration under uneven state adoption is real in Medicaid gap | protocol-review.md:86 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R183 | Migration changes political economy of holdout states | protocol-review.md:86 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R184 | Childcare need is countercyclical; payroll-tax and state revenues are procyclical | protocol-review.md:87 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R185 | State balanced-budget rules force cuts at maximum need | protocol-review.md:87 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R186 | No architecture is currently stress-tested against a recession year | protocol-review.md:87 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R187 | The protocol treats research as something that happens before rollout | protocol-review.md:89 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R188 | Staged implementation is an evaluation design if built as one | protocol-review.md:91 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R189 | Lottery allocation where oversubscribed enables evaluation | protocol-review.md:91 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R190 | Staggered geography enables difference-in-differences | protocol-review.md:91 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R191 | Desert metric (licensed slots per child) counts only licensed supply | protocol-review.md:95 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R192 | §1.3 and §17 insist FFN and license-exempt care are large, poorly measured share of real market | protocol-review.md:95 | ATTRIBUTION | none stated |
| R193 | Protocol questions completeness of licensed-supply data in one section and consumes metric built entirely on it in another | protocol-review.md:95 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R194 | "Desert" metric contradicts the protocol's own premise | protocol-review.md:95 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R195 | Desert metric does not predict actual unmet demand (waitlists, parental search failure, labor-force effects) once informal care is accounted for | protocol-review.md:95 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R196 | Every parent and provider input arrives through intermediary — surveys, associations, advocacy synthesis | protocol-review.md:98 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R197 | Tacit operational knowledge systematically fails to survive aggregation | protocol-review.md:98 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R198 | Public-comment dockets on CCDF rulemakings narrow the gap (§8 and §12 required sources) | protocol-review.md:99 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R199 | State legislative testimony from operating providers and OIG/GAO interview-based reports | protocol-review.md:99 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R200 | The pre-registration analog: once execution starts, the protocol text is the commitment device | protocol-review.md:107 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R201 | Per-hypothesis adjudication criteria prevent motivated synthesis | protocol-review.md:108 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R202 | Symmetric steelmanning is the single strongest guard against bias | protocol-review.md:109 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R203 | Two-source rule: every load-bearing empirical claim needs two sources of different types | protocol-review.md:110 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R204 | Much of the childcare field is citogenesis — one estimate laundered through dozen reports | protocol-review.md:110 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R205 | Anchor quarantine: move every numeric prior into single appendix table with columns | protocol-review.md:112 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R206 | An anchor that was wrong is a finding about the protocol's priors | protocol-review.md:112 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R207 | One such anchor: the "180 days" framing counted weekends; employment-relevant figure is ~75 weekdays | protocol-review.md:112 | NUMBER | none stated |
| R208 | Exhibit for why the quarantine table should exist | protocol-review.md:112 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R209 | Adversarial presentation for polarized literatures where field genuinely disagrees | protocol-review.md:114 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R210 | Quebec child outcomes are contested; literature is genuinely polarized | protocol-review.md:114 | ATTRIBUTION | none stated |
| R211 | Tennessee VPK shows polarized field findings | protocol-review.md:114 | ATTRIBUTION | none stated |
| R212 | Head Start fade-out is a contested finding | protocol-review.md:114 | ATTRIBUTION | none stated |
| R213 | Microdata-first baseline from public microdata (ACS, SIPP, CPS supplements, NSECE) with reproducible pipeline | protocol-review.md:122 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R214 | Reproducible baseline converts from "citable" to "checkable" | protocol-review.md:122 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R215 | Code and data vintages should be committed alongside the report | protocol-review.md:122 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R216 | Named quantitative deliverables per workstream should specify output tables in advance | protocol-review.md:123 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R217 | Uncertainty as bands, not adjectives; key quantities reported as P10/P50/P90 | protocol-review.md:124 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R218 | Confidence grading: three-tier GRADE-style scheme (strong/moderate/weak evidence) | protocol-review.md:125 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R219 | Two-method rule for load-bearing parameters: labor share, turnover, take-up elasticity | protocol-review.md:126 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R220 | Each parameter estimated by at least two independent routes | protocol-review.md:126 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R221 | Proposed operationalization of "binding": relax constraint alone, would materially raise achievable coverage or ramp rate | protocol-review.md:127 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R222 | Practical test for binding: if budget doubled, what would stop output from doubling? | protocol-review.md:127 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R223 | Apply binding test per design and per age band | protocol-review.md:127 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R224 | Phase-gate execution: Phase 0 of a few days first | protocol-review.md:145 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R225 | Phase 0's job: fire kill conditions early or re-rank workstreams | protocol-review.md:145 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R226 | External review before execution recommended | protocol-review.md:146 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R227 | The protocol now lives in version control — required for freeze-and-deviations discipline | protocol-review.md:147 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R228 | Freeze point: protocol as of commit b12c6fc (2026-08-03) | deviations-log.md:2 | DATE | none stated |
| R229 | H2.1 adjudicated from published NSECE snapshots instead of SIPP/NSECE microdata | deviations-log.md:7 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R230 | Microdata acquisition/processing exceeds session scope | deviations-log.md:7 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R231 | Precision reduced (±pp unknown); direction unaffected; microdata pass remains queued | deviations-log.md:7 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R232 | Scorecard double-scoring done as same-analyst shuffled re-score in same session | deviations-log.md:8 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R233 | Single-agent execution weaker independence than intended | deviations-log.md:8 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R234 | Independent re-score by second reviewer remains queued | deviations-log.md:8 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R235 | §16 sequencing drafted before formal scorecard ran | deviations-log.md:9 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R236 | Sequencing to be re-checked against formal scorecard output | deviations-log.md:9 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R237 | FTE model uses representative licensing ratios and coverage scenarios | deviations-log.md:10 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R238 | National totals robust to ±1 ratio point | deviations-log.md:10 | NUMBER | none stated |
| R239 | State detail queued | deviations-log.md:10 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R240 | Scorecard consolidated to 14 dimensions from protocol's 23 | deviations-log.md:11 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R241 | Omitted dimensions fold into retained ones or lack pass-level evidence | deviations-log.md:11 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R242 | Full-dimension pass queued with second-reviewer re-score | deviations-log.md:11 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R243 | Re-score performed on 3-architecture sample, not full matrix | deviations-log.md:12 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R244 | Two ±1 adjustments applied; top-4 unchanged | deviations-log.md:12 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R245 | Full independent re-score queued | deviations-log.md:12 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R246 | Anchor rows 6, 7, 10, 13–18, 20 remain unverified after pass 2 | deviations-log.md:13 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R247 | Search returns did not cover them; two-source rule enforced | deviations-log.md:13 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R248 | Pass 3 closed anchors 6, 10, 14, 15 | deviations-log.md:14 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R249 | Rows 7 (initiative states), 16 (background-check backlogs), 20 (Head Start/Lanham dates) remain blank | deviations-log.md:14 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R250 | None blank rows are load-bearing for current conclusions | deviations-log.md:14 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R251 | ARPA price-effect replication attempted and found absent — OpenAlex full-corpus check returned 4 items, none evaluative | deviations-log.md:15 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R252 | The literature does not yet exist (not a search failure) | deviations-log.md:15 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R253 | ws09 conclusion holds at single-source-family confidence | deviations-log.md:15 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R254 | Register entry added to §17 | deviations-log.md:15 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R255 | H4.2 supported with criteria met: ~40k CDA credentials/yr vs ~220k net-new hires required | README.md:3 | ANCHOR | CDA Council |
| R256 | H4.1 adjudicated at ~40% — parity is largest term but not majority | README.md:3 | ANCHOR | FTE model |
| R257 | ARPA replication check: evaluative literature does not exist yet | README.md:3 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R258 | Single-source-family confidence stands, register entry added | README.md:3 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R259 | School-age unmet demand quantified: 4 in 5 middle schoolers wanting afterschool can't get it | README.md:3 | NUMBER | America After 3PM |
| R260 | All-time high unmet demand in school-age afterschool | README.md:3 | PROGRAM-FACT | America After 3PM |
| R261 | Anchor 6: 17 supermajority states, not ~12 | README.md:3 | NUMBER | NCSL verification |
| R262 | Anchor 10: DCFSA raised to $7,500 for 2026 — employer channel expanding on two tracks | README.md:3 | NUMBER | IRS |
| R263 | Anchor 14: Netherlands — 2,000+ children removed | README.md:3 | NUMBER | Netherlands data |
| R264 | Anchor 15: NYC >60k in two years | README.md:3 | NUMBER | NYC DOE data |
| R265 | Three anchor rows remain blank by rule, none load-bearing | README.md:3 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R266 | Pass 1 execution of protocol workstreams (docs/research-inquiry.md) — 2026-08-03 | README.md:7 | DATE | none stated |
| R267 | Each file states findings with sources, hypothesis calls, what remains | README.md:8 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R268 | Baseline data work lives in ../baseline/ | README.md:8 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R269 | Phase 0 in ../docs/phase0-findings.md | README.md:8 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R270 | Pass 3 closed: H4.2 supported with criteria met | README.md:3 | ANCHOR | none stated |
| R271 | Pass 3: ARPA replication check ran and found evaluative literature does not exist yet | README.md:3 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R272 | Across Canada, Quebec, Germany, Australia, DC, and the US market — educators, not dollars, bind the ramp | README.md:29 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R273 | Supply-side operating grants demonstrably suppress prices and hold supply (ARPA) | README.md:29 | CAUSAL | ARPA stabilization data |
| R274 | Demand-side subsidies demonstrably inflate fees (Australia) | README.md:29 | CAUSAL | Australia data |
| R275 | The Byrd rule permits financing and kills mandates | README.md:29 | STATUTORY | none stated |
| R276 | ARP minimum-wage strike is the controlling precedent | README.md:29 | STATUTORY | ws11 documentation |
| R277 | Procedurally viable path points at funded supply and compensation with standards housed inside federal spending programs | README.md:29 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R278 | Evidence favors segmented design — K–12-formula extension for school-age, mixed delivery under fallback-laddered for 3–4, supply-first-plus-caregiver-choice for 0–2 | README.md:29 | SCORECARD-BASIS | none stated |
| R279 | Supply and compensation money first, demand-side eligibility second, dedicated revenue throughout, no sunsets | README.md:29 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R280 | ARPA cliff measured what a sunset does | README.md:29 | CAUSAL | ARPA data |
| R281 | What pass 2 requires: formal §14 scorecard (highest-value first) | README.md:31 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R282 | §4 FTE-requirement model + per-hypothesis adjudication criteria per §0.3 | README.md:31 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R283 | SIPP/NSECE microdata pass (H2.1 formal adjudication; paid-care precision) | README.md:31 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R284 | Primary-source passes flagged in ws10 (1971 veto text) | README.md:31 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R285 | Primary-source passes flagged in ws06 (Medicaid holdouts, tribal) | README.md:31 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R286 | Primary-source passes flagged in ws11 (CRS compilations) | README.md:31 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R287 | Primary-source passes flagged in ws13 (union resolutions, opposition primary texts) | README.md:31 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R288 | Remaining anchors (rows 6–11, 14–20) and §17 register update remain queued | README.md:31 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R289 | Red-team pass and steelmanned feasibility case assembly | README.md:31 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R290 | H2.1 — Majority of under-5s not in paid non-parental care supported | baseline-v0.md:50 | ANCHOR | NSECE 2019 data |
| R291 | 59% in any nonparental care bounds paid share below majority once unpaid relative care and free public slots removed | baseline-v0.md:50 | CAUSAL | NSECE 2019 |
| R292 | Microdata pass required to formally adjudicate H2.1 | baseline-v0.md:50 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R293 | H2.2 — 0–3 and school-age have far weaker public infrastructure than 3–5 supported | baseline-v0.md:51 | ANCHOR | spending data |
| R294 | Preschool-band streams ≈$25B+ vs. $1.3B dedicated school-age (for 32.6M children) | baseline-v0.md:51 | NUMBER | spending inventory |
| R295 | 0–3 served mainly by EHS and CCDF subsidy slots | baseline-v0.md:51 | PROGRAM-FACT | HHS/ACF |
| R296 | H2.3 — No unified national provider registry supported | baseline-v0.md:52 | ANCHOR | none stated |
| R297 | Federal "national database" covers licensing regulations, not providers | baseline-v0.md:52 | PROGRAM-FACT | HHS |
| R298 | Provider lookup routes to 50+ state systems | baseline-v0.md:52 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R299 | FCC counts exist for only 39 states | baseline-v0.md:52 | NUMBER | CCAoA |
| R300 | SIPP + NSECE microdata work: paid/unpaid split, arrangement × income × state | baseline-v0.md:56 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R301 | Complete spending inventory work: TANF, CACFP, IDEA, Title I, tax expenditures with single-vintage normalization | baseline-v0.md:57 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R302 | State-level supply reconciliation: state licensing files × CCDF administrative data, documenting incompatibilities per state | baseline-v0.md:58 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R303 | Private family spending distribution work: SIPP; CCAoA price data as cross-check | baseline-v0.md:59 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R304 | Incompatibility 1: Census PEP state file (SC-EST2024) covers 50 states + DC only | incompatibility-log.md:7 | STATUTORY | none stated |
| R305 | Puerto Rico and territories are separate files with different structures | incompatibility-log.md:7 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R306 | Committed denominator understates §-scope population | incompatibility-log.md:7 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R307 | Territories flagged in protocol scope line and §6 | incompatibility-log.md:7 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R308 | Fix: Add PR/territory pull in next increment or descope explicitly | incompatibility-log.md:7 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R309 | Incompatibility 2: Protocol §1.4 bands are deliberately fuzzy (0–~3, ~3–5, ~5–12) | incompatibility-log.md:8 | STATUTORY | research-inquiry.md |
| R310 | Pipeline cuts at 0–2 / 3–4 / 5–12 | incompatibility-log.md:8 | STATUTORY | none stated |
| R311 | Age-3 children (3.69M) sit in preschool here but infant/toddler in some programs | incompatibility-log.md:8 | NUMBER | Census PEP data |
| R312 | EHS runs to 3; many pre-K programs start at 4 | incompatibility-log.md:8 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R313 | Fixed cut documented; sensitivity check when program-specific analysis needs it | incompatibility-log.md:8 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R314 | Incompatibility 3: PEP civilian estimates vs. ACS resident population differ slightly | incompatibility-log.md:9 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R315 | Sub-1% differences at these ages but mixing sources would introduce silent inconsistency | incompatibility-log.md:9 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R316 | PEP is single denominator source for all baseline tables | incompatibility-log.md:9 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R317 | ACS used only for characteristics (income, employment) with difference noted | incompatibility-log.md:9 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R318 | Incompatibility 4: NHES-ECPP "nonparental care" ≠ "paid care" | incompatibility-log.md:10 | STATUTORY | none stated |
| R319 | Published toplines do not isolate payment | incompatibility-log.md:10 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R320 | H2.1 cannot be adjudicated from toplines | incompatibility-log.md:10 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R321 | SIPP/NSECE microdata pass scheduled | incompatibility-log.md:10 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R322 | Incompatibility 5: Licensed FCC home counts available for only 39 states | incompatibility-log.md:11 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R323 | 2019–2022 comparison possible for 39 states only | incompatibility-log.md:11 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R324 | National FCC supply is a floor, not a count; trend direction reliable, level is not | incompatibility-log.md:11 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R325 | Reported as "39-state" figures, never as national totals | incompatibility-log.md:11 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R326 | Incompatibility 6: NIEER counts state-funded pre-K only | incompatibility-log.md:12 | STATUTORY | none stated |
| R327 | District- and city-funded programs fall outside NIEER | incompatibility-log.md:12 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R328 | State pre-K spending/enrollment is a floor on public preschool activity | incompatibility-log.md:12 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R329 | Note carried on every NIEER-sourced figure | incompatibility-log.md:12 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R330 | Incompatibility 7: Spending streams have mixed vintages (FY2025 appropriations vs. SY2023–24 NIEER) | incompatibility-log.md:13 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R331 | Summing across streams mixes years | incompatibility-log.md:13 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R332 | Single-vintage normalization scheduled for complete inventory | incompatibility-log.md:13 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R333 | Incompatibility 8: ECPP arrangement categories overlap | incompatibility-log.md:14 | STATUTORY | none stated |
| R334 | Slots ≠ children — children in multiple arrangements; shares sum >100% | incompatibility-log.md:14 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R335 | All arrangement figures reported as participation rates, never summed | incompatibility-log.md:14 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R336 | H2.1 adjudication criteria: Supported if best available national estimate of paid arrangements <50% | adjudication-criteria.md:6 | SCORECARD-BASIS | none stated |
| R337 | H2.1: Refuted if ≥50% in paid arrangements | adjudication-criteria.md:7 | SCORECARD-BASIS | none stated |
| R338 | H2.1: Indeterminate if paid/unpaid cannot be separated within ±10pp of 50% line | adjudication-criteria.md:8 | SCORECARD-BASIS | none stated |
| R339 | H4.1 adjudication: Supported if parity payroll − current ≥50% of incremental cost | adjudication-criteria.md:11 | SCORECARD-BASIS | none stated |
| R340 | H4.1: Refuted if <35% under central assumptions | adjudication-criteria.md:12 | SCORECARD-BASIS | none stated |
| R341 | H4.1: Indeterminate if 35–50% or if facility/admin too uncertain | adjudication-criteria.md:12 | SCORECARD-BASIS | none stated |
| R342 | H4.2 adjudication: Supported if required net-new recruits exceed pipeline throughput for ≥3 of first 5 years | adjudication-criteria.md:16 | SCORECARD-BASIS | none stated |
| R343 | H4.2: Refuted if any US jurisdiction grew workforce faster than pipeline via wages alone | adjudication-criteria.md:17 | SCORECARD-BASIS | none stated |
| R344 | H4.2 refinement: split channels — retention (wage-responsive, fast) vs. recruitment (pipeline-bound, slow) | adjudication-criteria.md:18 | SCORECARD-BASIS | none stated |
| R345 | H9.1 adjudication per instrument: supported for demand-side if fee growth ≥ subsidy growth | adjudication-criteria.md:21 | SCORECARD-BASIS | none stated |
| R346 | H9.1: refuted for supply-side operating grants if prices fell/held while funds ≥$10B scale | adjudication-criteria.md:21 | SCORECARD-BASIS | none stated |
| R347 | ARPA evidence already meets H9.1 refutation threshold | adjudication-criteria.md:21 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R348 | H11.1 adjudication: Supported if parliamentarian precedent shows behavioral mandates struck | adjudication-criteria.md:24 | SCORECARD-BASIS | none stated |
| R349 | H11.1: and no case of market-wide standards mandate surviving | adjudication-criteria.md:24 | SCORECARD-BASIS | none stated |
| R350 | H11.1: Refuted if any market-wide standard (not grant condition) survived Byrd review | adjudication-criteria.md:25 | SCORECARD-BASIS | none stated |
| R351 | H11.1 refinement: "finance survives, mandates die"; grant conditions contested middle | adjudication-criteria.md:26 | SCORECARD-BASIS | none stated |
| R352 | H12.3 adjudication: Supported if (a) ESI analogs show constituency effects AND (b) §45F uptake concentrates on large employers | adjudication-criteria.md:29 | SCORECARD-BASIS | none stated |
| R353 | H12.3: Refuted if employer-benefit growth coincides with rising business support for public provision | adjudication-criteria.md:30 | SCORECARD-BASIS | none stated |
| R354 | H12.3: Indeterminate expected; may not resolve from US data | adjudication-criteria.md:31 | SCORECARD-BASIS | none stated |
| R355 | H14.2 adjudication: Supported if per-band best outscores uniform best in ≥2 of 3 bands under ≥3 of 4 weightings | adjudication-criteria.md:34 | SCORECARD-BASIS | none stated |
| R356 | H14.2: Refuted if uniform architecture ranks first in ≥2 bands under most weightings | adjudication-criteria.md:35 | SCORECARD-BASIS | none stated |
| R357 | Deviations log opened with adjudication criteria | adjudication-criteria.md:37 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R358 | Steelmanned feasibility case: universality has already passed in the hardest places | steelman-feasibility.md:5 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R359 | Georgia universal pre-K: sustained for decades across partisan turnover | steelman-feasibility.md:5 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R360 | Oklahoma universal pre-K: sustained across partisan turnover | steelman-feasibility.md:5 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R361 | Florida universal VPK: sustained across partisan turnover | steelman-feasibility.md:5 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R362 | Two of three red-state universal pre-K are Medicaid holdout states | steelman-feasibility.md:5 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R363 | DoD child care system operates at scale with parity pay, unified standards, high measured quality | steelman-feasibility.md:7 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R364 | Question "can a US public system do this?" is settled — it does, today | steelman-feasibility.md:7 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R365 | DC's Pay Equity Fund measurably cut turnover within a funding cycle | steelman-feasibility.md:9 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R366 | DC Pay Equity Fund cost (~$70–90M/yr for a city) scales to single-digit billions nationally | steelman-feasibility.md:9 | ANCHOR | none stated |
| R367 | DC cost is single-digit billions nationally for existing workforce | steelman-feasibility.md:9 | NUMBER | none stated |
| R368 | Full program cost: $209B/yr | steelman-feasibility.md:9 | ANCHOR | README.md |
| R369 | Unifying Framework is a 15-organization consensus on credentials, pathways, compensation | steelman-feasibility.md:11 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R370 | Fault line everyone feared was solved by pre-negotiation | steelman-feasibility.md:11 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R371 | NHSA endorsed BBB's structure | steelman-feasibility.md:11 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R372 | 1971 coalition fractured over church-state and delivery | steelman-feasibility.md:11 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R373 | 2021 coalition held — BBB childcare title passed House intact | steelman-feasibility.md:11 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R374 | 2021 title polled well | steelman-feasibility.md:13 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R375 | Business lobby now produces cost-of-inaction studies ($329B/decade, BPC) | steelman-feasibility.md:13 | PROGRAM-FACT | BPC |
| R376 | 1971 opposition frame ("communal child rearing") has lost establishment sponsor | steelman-feasibility.md:13 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R377 | Current Chamber-adjacent argument: childcare shortage is workforce problem for business | steelman-feasibility.md:13 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R378 | Every component of the stable top-4 has run somewhere at scale | steelman-feasibility.md:15 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R379 | Federal-to-local grantee delivery: Head Start 60 years | steelman-feasibility.md:15 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R380 | Supply-side operating grants: $24B ARPA, administered by 50 states without headline scandal | steelman-feasibility.md:15 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R381 | Direct provision: DoD | steelman-feasibility.md:15 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R382 | School-formula finance: OK 25 years | steelman-feasibility.md:15 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R383 | Nothing in recommended architecture is untested machinery | steelman-feasibility.md:15 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R384 | The cliff proves salience: post-ARPA deterioration became measurable within months | steelman-feasibility.md:17 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R385 | Childcare supply is now something whose loss is visible — precondition for durable programs | steelman-feasibility.md:17 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R386 | The case does not claim 2.8M-FTE flow has precedent | steelman-feasibility.md:19 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R387 | The case does not claim any current Congress passes first bill | steelman-feasibility.md:19 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R388 | It claims components are proven, coalition assembled, opposition frame weaker, constituency exists | steelman-feasibility.md:19 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R389 | Failure scenarios contingent on design/sequencing, not structural impossibility | steelman-feasibility.md:19 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R390 | Difference between "hard" and "infeasible"; evidence supports "hard" | steelman-feasibility.md:19 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R391 | CCDF market-rate surveys anchor to broken market prices | ws09-market-response.md:13 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R392 | Cost-estimation models anchor to what quality actually costs | ws09-market-response.md:13 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R393 | Rate-setting choice has large distributional and supply consequences | ws09-market-response.md:13 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R394 | Georgia lottery earmark: ~30 yrs of operation | ws03-cost.md:17 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R395 | Georgia lottery earmark verified | ws03-cost.md:17 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R396 | Vermont payroll tax, NM permanent fund, Multnomah surtax pending primary-source pass | ws03-cost.md:17 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R397 | H3.1 (compensation dominates) directionally supported via labor share + wage-floor findings | ws03-cost.md:19 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R398 | H3.3 (0–12 ≫ 2× pre-K-only) supported directionally | ws03-cost.md:19 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R399 | School-age is 64% of population and absent from every collected estimate | ws03-cost.md:19 | CAUSAL | baseline-v0.md, ws03-cost.md |
| R400 | ARPA stabilization was $24B program with observable results | ws09-market-response.md:5 | ANCHOR | CEA |
| R401 | Red-team attack 1: workforce binds may be artifact of studying underpaying programs | red-team.md:5 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R402 | DC PEF shows parity-level funding fixes retention quickly | red-team.md:7 | CAUSAL | ws04 |
| R403 | FTE model shows required flow is labor-market-scale movement no wage has produced on schedule | red-team.md:7 | CAUSAL | FTE model |
| R404 | Amendment: restate as "workforce binds at any historically attempted wage; at parity wages binding becomes flow/pipeline, untested" | red-team.md:7 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R405 | H4.2 call unchanged; confidence in "money can't fix it" reduced | red-team.md:7 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R406 | Red-team attack 2: ARPA price finding is pandemic artifact from interested source | red-team.md:9 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R407 | CEA (White House) analyzed its own program during pandemic-distorted dynamics | red-team.md:9 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R408 | Cost declines may reflect demand suppression, not grant efficacy | red-team.md:9 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R409 | Two-source rule not met by NWLC (advocacy) corroboration | red-team.md:10 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R410 | Expiry-side evidence (access deterioration, losses accelerating post-cliff) harder to attribute to pandemic | red-team.md:10 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R411 | Supply-side grants claim rests heavily on CEA analysis | red-team.md:10 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R412 | Amendment: downgrade H9.1's supply-side inversion to supported-moderate, single-source-family | red-team.md:11 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R413 | Queue independent replication (academic literature) in pass 3 | red-team.md:11 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R414 | Scorecard a6 passthrough=5 stands on expiry evidence but flagged | red-team.md:11 | SCORECARD-BASIS | none stated |
| R415 | Red-team attack 3: chain occupancy at 71% shows demand softness, not staffing limits | red-team.md:13 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R416 | KinderCare enrollment fell while prices rose | red-team.md:13 | CAUSAL | KinderCare Q2 2025 |
| R417 | In served markets at current prices, demand is the margin | red-team.md:13 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R418 | This cuts against "shortage everywhere" framing | red-team.md:14 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R419 | Amendment lands as segmentation | red-team.md:14 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R420 | Both true in different geographies: deserts supply-starved; metros price-rationed with slack | red-team.md:14 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R421 | Strengthens case against uniform national instruments | red-team.md:15 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R422 | Amendment applied to framing | red-team.md:15 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R423 | Red-team attack 4: supply-first politically fatal; durability score buried | red-team.md:17 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R424 | GA/OK went demand-first universal and survived | red-team.md:18 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R425 | Amendment partially lands | red-team.md:18 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R426 | GA/OK delivered visible universal seats fast at modest quality | red-team.md:18 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R427 | Demand-first success at 4-year-old tier where capacity existed | red-team.md:18 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R428 | Supply-first logic applies to 0–2 and compensation where capacity does not exist | red-team.md:18 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R429 | ws16 sequence re-stated as visible-first where capacity exists, supply-first where it doesn't | red-team.md:19 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R430 | Segmentation already implied but sequencing draft under-stressed | red-team.md:19 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R431 | Pure supply-first architecture's political fragility (durability score 2) is real and now explicit | red-team.md:19 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R432 | Red-team attack 5: stable top-4 reflects correlated scoring, not evidence | red-team.md:21 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R433 | All four winners embody the analyst's pass-1 conclusions | red-team.md:21 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R434 | If scores encode priors, stability measures internal consistency, not truth | red-team.md:22 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R435 | Response: cannot be fully rebutted from inside | red-team.md:22 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R436 | Deviation #2/#6 problem: single-analyst scoring | red-team.md:22 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R437 | Mitigations in place: anchored scales authored first, cited cells, sample re-score | red-team.md:22 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R438 | Standing requirement: independent re-score by second reviewer before scorecard presented as conclusion | red-team.md:23 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R439 | Result should be stated as "the evidence as synthesized here ranks…" not "the answer is" | red-team.md:23 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R440 | Net effect: directional conclusions survive; three confidence downgrades applied | red-team.md:26 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R441 | Downgrades: parity-wage untested at scale; ARPA price single-source-family; metro/desert framing | red-team.md:26 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R442 | Segmented, sequenced recommendation survives all five attacks | red-team.md:26 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R443 | Strengthened by attacks 3 and 4 | red-team.md:26 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R444 | Byrd rule: quality standards, staff-to-child ratios, credential requirements plausibly vulnerable | research-inquiry.md:292 | STATUTORY | none stated |
| R445 | Byrd rule: wage floors vulnerable | research-inquiry.md:292 | STATUTORY | none stated |
| R446 | Byrd rule: licensing conditions vulnerable | research-inquiry.md:292 | STATUTORY | none stated |
| R447 | Byrd rule: civil-rights conditions on providers vulnerable | research-inquiry.md:292 | STATUTORY | none stated |
| R448 | Determine from parliamentarian precedent which categories survived and which struck | research-inquiry.md:292 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R449 | This is the single most important sub-question in workstream | research-inquiry.md:292 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R450 | Build Back Better was written time-limited to fit budget window | ws11-legislative.md:13 | STATUTORY | CBO structure |
| R451 | H11.2's mechanism confirmed by CBO structure | ws11-legislative.md:13 | CAUSAL | CBO |
| R452 | ARPA cliff is the measured preview of what reconciliation sunset does | ws11-legislative.md:13 | CAUSAL | ws09 |
| R453 | Relief_workforce dimension: 1=no compensation, 3=partial/indirect, 5=parity + pipeline funding | scorecard/scales.md:7 | SCORECARD-BASIS | none stated |
| R454 | Relief_supply dimension: 1=builds nothing, 3=holds existing (stabilization), 5=builds new incl. rural | scorecard/scales.md:8 | SCORECARD-BASIS | none stated |
| R455 | Coverage_02 dimension: 1≈no 0–2s, 3=subsidized/poor only, 5=universal incl. home | scorecard/scales.md:9 | SCORECARD-BASIS | none stated |
| R456 | Coverage_34 dimension: 1=none, 3=partial, 5=universal | scorecard/scales.md:10 | SCORECARD-BASIS | none stated |
| R457 | Coverage_512 dimension: 1=none, 3=some districts, 5=universal wraparound + summer | scorecard/scales.md:11 | SCORECARD-BASIS | none stated |
| R458 | Procedural dimension: 1=60 votes + Byrd fails, 3=reconcilable with strips, 5=clean fit | scorecard/scales.md:12 | SCORECARD-BASIS | none stated |
| R459 | Federalism dimension: 1=holdout collapse, 3=incentives only, 5=holdout-proof | scorecard/scales.md:13 | SCORECARD-BASIS | none stated |
| R460 | Durability dimension: 1=annual appropriations no constituency, 3=broad OR dedicated, 5=both + entanglement | scorecard/scales.md:14 | SCORECARD-BASIS | none stated |
| R461 | Passthrough_risk (5=low): 1=pure demand, 3=mixed, 5=supply-side or direct | scorecard/scales.md:15 | SCORECARD-BASIS | none stated |
| R462 | Participation_risk (5=low): 1=incumbents needed below-cost, 3=cost-based, 5=doesn't depend | scorecard/scales.md:16 | SCORECARD-BASIS | none stated |
| R463 | Preference_fit dimension: 1=center-only, 3=mixed weak home, 5=funds chosen arrangement per band | scorecard/scales.md:17 | SCORECARD-BASIS | none stated |
| R464 | Integrity_risk (5=low): 1=Netherlands-shaped clawback, 3=standard oversight, 5=direct or small-N | scorecard/scales.md:18 | SCORECARD-BASIS | none stated |
| R465 | Distributional dimension: 1=high-income concentration, 3=proportional, 5=burden peak + deserts | scorecard/scales.md:19 | SCORECARD-BASIS | none stated |
| R466 | Evaluability dimension: 1=no variation, 3=observational, 5=staged lottery rollout | scorecard/scales.md:20 | SCORECARD-BASIS | none stated |
| R467 | Protocol's 23 dimensions consolidated to 14 for this pass | scorecard/scales.md:3 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R468 | Omitted dimensions fold into retained or lack evidence | scorecard/scales.md:3 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R469 | Omitted dimensions scored narratively in rationale where evidence exists | scorecard/scales.md:3 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R470 | Top 4 stable under all four objective weightings, no flips | scorecard/rationale.md:5 | SCORECARD-BASIS | none stated |
| R471 | Head Start scaled (a3) top-4 member | scorecard/rationale.md:5 | SCORECARD-BASIS | none stated |
| R472 | Supply-first (a6) top-4 member | scorecard/rationale.md:5 | SCORECARD-BASIS | none stated |
| R473 | Public option (a8) top-4 member | scorecard/rationale.md:5 | SCORECARD-BASIS | none stated |
| R474 | Fallback ladder (a9) top-4 member | scorecard/rationale.md:5 | SCORECARD-BASIS | none stated |
| R475 | Rank stability means recommendation does not depend on resolving objective question | scorecard/rationale.md:5 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R476 | Strongest kind of result method can produce | scorecard/rationale.md:5 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R477 | The stable four share: supply-side money, compensation funded not mandated, standards in spending programs, holdout-robust | scorecard/rationale.md:7 | SCORECARD-BASIS | none stated |
| R478 | Four are not rivals but components | scorecard/rationale.md:7 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R479 | a3/a9 are delivery chassis | scorecard/rationale.md:7 | SCORECARD-BASIS | none stated |
| R480 | a6 is ramp strategy | scorecard/rationale.md:7 | SCORECARD-BASIS | none stated |
| R481 | a8 is direct-provision backstop | scorecard/rationale.md:7 | SCORECARD-BASIS | none stated |
| R482 | Fully compatible with ws16 sequence and ws14 segmentation | scorecard/rationale.md:7 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R483 | K–12 extension (a4) ranks 5–6 overall only because 1 on 0–2 coverage | scorecard/rationale.md:9 | SCORECARD-BASIS | none stated |
| R484 | Within school-age band a4 is best instrument | scorecard/rationale.md:9 | SCORECARD-BASIS | none stated |
| R485 | ws14 segmentation stands | scorecard/rationale.md:9 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R486 | Caregiver-choice (a11) mid-table overall but only 5 on 0–2 coverage and preference fit | scorecard/rationale.md:9 | SCORECARD-BASIS | none stated |
| R487 | a11 role is 0–2 segment component, not standalone | scorecard/rationale.md:9 | SCORECARD-BASIS | none stated |
| R488 | Cash comparator beats three real architectures under equity weighting | scorecard/rationale.md:9 | SCORECARD-BASIS | none stated |
| R489 | Burden-relief is real | scorecard/rationale.md:9 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R490 | Cash scores 1–2 on every supply dimension | scorecard/rationale.md:9 | SCORECARD-BASIS | none stated |
| R491 | Exactly the decomposition benchmark exists to show | scorecard/rationale.md:9 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R492 | Demand-side allowance (a5) ranks last under nearly every weighting | scorecard/rationale.md:9 | SCORECARD-BASIS | none stated |
| R493 | Federalized Tri-Share (a10) ranks last under nearly every weighting | scorecard/rationale.md:9 | SCORECARD-BASIS | none stated |
| R494 | Two most politically fashionable designs are least evidence-supported | scorecard/rationale.md:9 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R495 | a3 federalism=5: direct-federal/fallback vs. CBO non-participation base case | scorecard/rationale.md:13 | SCORECARD-BASIS | ws06 |
| R496 | a9 federalism=5: direct-federal/fallback vs. CBO non-participation base case | scorecard/rationale.md:13 | SCORECARD-BASIS | ws06 |
| R497 | 10 verified holdout states | scorecard/rationale.md:13 | NUMBER | KFF |
| R498 | a6 passthrough=5: ARPA stabilization price evidence | scorecard/rationale.md:14 | SCORECARD-BASIS | ws09 |
| R499 | a5 passthrough=1: Australia fee inflation | scorecard/rationale.md:15 | SCORECARD-BASIS | ws15 |
| R500 | a5 integrity=1: Netherlands clawback catastrophe | scorecard/rationale.md:15 | SCORECARD-BASIS | ws15 |
| R501 | a8 participation=5: don't depend on incumbents accepting public rates | scorecard/rationale.md:16 | SCORECARD-BASIS | ws12 |
| R502 | a3 participation=4: don't depend on incumbents | scorecard/rationale.md:16 | SCORECARD-BASIS | ws12 |
| R503 | Chains rationalizing at ~71% occupancy | scorecard/rationale.md:16 | PROGRAM-FACT | ws12 |
| R504 | a4 durability=5: GA/OK/FL multi-decade survival via school/lottery | scorecard/rationale.md:17 | SCORECARD-BASIS | ws15 |
| R505 | a7 durability=5: dedicated revenue vs. DC-PEF annual survival | scorecard/rationale.md:18 | SCORECARD-BASIS | ws04 |
| R506 | a11 coverage_02=5: NSECE unpaid individual care modal 0–2 | scorecard/rationale.md:19 | SCORECARD-BASIS | ws08 |
| R507 | a11 preference_fit=5: NSECE data | scorecard/rationale.md:19 | SCORECARD-BASIS | ws08 |
| R508 | a2 relief low: Germany entitlement produces litigation not slots | scorecard/rationale.md:20 | SCORECARD-BASIS | ws15 |
| R509 | Re-reasoned a5, a11 against scales without reference to first pass | scorecard/rationale.md:24 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R510 | a5 distributional 2→3: income-scaled allowance targets near-poor burden peak | scorecard/rationale.md:25 | SCORECARD-BASIS | ws08 |
| R511 | First score conflated supply failure with distributional failure | scorecard/rationale.md:25 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R512 | a11 relief_supply 1→2: monetizing kin care retains existing informal capacity | scorecard/rationale.md:26 | SCORECARD-BASIS | none stated |
| R513 | FFN exit is real supply loss | scorecard/rationale.md:26 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R514 | First score treated "builds nothing new" as "holds nothing" | scorecard/rationale.md:26 | CAUSAL | none stated |
| R515 | a4 procedural 3→4 considered, not applied | scorecard/rationale.md:27 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R516 | State-led OK route needs no federal act | scorecard/rationale.md:27 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R517 | Retained 3 because scored object is federal architecture | scorecard/rationale.md:27 | PROGRAM-FACT | none stated |
| R518 | Re-run after adjustments: top-4 set and order unchanged under all weightings | scorecard/rationale.md:28 | SCORECARD-BASIS | none stated |
| R519 | H14.2 adjudication: segmented-beats-uniform supported | scorecard/rationale.md:32 | SCORECARD-BASIS | none stated |
| R520 | Best per-band instruments each outscore every uniform architecture within band under all four weightings | scorecard/rationale.md:32 | SCORECARD-BASIS | none stated |
| R521 | No uniform architecture leads any two bands | scorecard/rationale.md:32 | SCORECARD-BASIS | none stated |
| R522 | Formal criteria met: ≥2 of 3 bands, ≥3 of 4 weightings | scorecard/rationale.md:32 | SCORECARD-BASIS | none stated |