Headline result
Three designs occupy the top four under every objective weighting: public option (a8), Head Start scaled (a3), and K–12 extension (a4). The fourth seat is not stable: supply-first (a6) holds it under equal / labor-supply / child-dev weightings; caregiver-choice (a11) takes it under equity-first. Federal fallback (a9) keeps the holdout-proofing cell (federalism=5) but leaves the all-weightings top set after the independent re-score removed unevidenced above-neutral scores.
This replaces the pass-1 claim of a flip-free top-4 (a3/a6/a8/a9). Full reconciliation: rescore-log.md.
What the stable three share: supply-side or direct-provision money (ws09), standards housed inside federal spending programs where legislation is needed (ws11), and either holdout-proofing (a3/a8) or demonstrated red-state durability at the pre-K / school-age tier (a4). They are components of a segmented design, not rival universals — a4's coverage_02=1 is definitional.
Notable placements. Supply-first (a6) remains the compensation/capacity ramp and ranks top-4 under three of four weightings, dragged by durability=2 (annual-appropriations fragility). Caregiver-choice (a11) is the only architecture at 5 on both coverage_02 and preference_fit — and now enters the equity top-4. Demand-side allowance (a5) and federalized Tri-Share (a10) rank last under every weighting. The cash comparator is mid-table (burden relief without supply) — it does not rank last; that earlier claim contradicted rankings.txt.
Key cell citations (evidence tags)
- a3 federalism=5, a8 federalism=5, a9 federalism=5: direct-federal/fallback routes vs. CBO non-participation base case (ws06)
- a3/a8 passthrough=5, a6 passthrough=5: ARPA stabilization / supply-side operating grants (ws09); direct provision
- a5 passthrough=1, integrity=1: Australia fee inflation (ws15); Netherlands clawback caution (ws06/ws15)
- a8 participation=5, a3 participation=4: don't depend on incumbents accepting public rates; chains rationalizing at ~71% occupancy (ws12)
- a4 durability=5: GA/OK/FL multi-decade survival via school/lottery formulas (ws15/ws10); relief_workforce=4 from district near-parity (ws07/ws13)
- a7 durability=4: dedicated revenue without full institutional entanglement (ws03 Georgia earmark; was 5 pre-rescore)
- a11 coverage_02=5, preference_fit=5: NSECE — unpaid individual care is the modal 0–2 arrangement (ws08)
- a2 relief_supply=2: Germany — entitlement produces litigation, not slots (ws15)
Reconciliation log (independent structurally-blinded re-score, 2026-08-07)
Full board re-scored via batch API with evidence inlined and scorecard unreachable. 47 cells moved; 25 judgment splits kept.
Material headline effects:
- a9 lost four unevidenced 4s → exits stable top-4
- a4 gained evidenced workforce/coverage/federalism/passthrough lifts → enters stable top-3
- a3 distributional 5→3 and relief_workforce 4→3 (scaled-universal ≠ targeted HS; no parity/pipeline)
- Floor enforced both ways on cash, a2, a1, a7, a8 evaluability/distributional
Sample re-score (deviation #6) remains in git history; it is superseded as the independence claim.
H14.2 adjudication (per criteria)
Segmented-beats-uniform: supported, strengthened. Best per-band instruments (a4 for 5–12 and strong on 3–4; a3/a8 for holdout-proof delivery; a6+a11 blend for 0–2) each outscore uniform demand-side and employer-split designs. Formal criteria met (≥2 of 3 bands, ≥3 of 4 weightings). The re-score made the segmentation visible in the ranks rather than only in the narrative.