Date: 2026-08-03. Normalization-table seed; full model collection pending.
Cost estimates collected (to normalize on the §1 basis)
| Estimate | Amount | Scope | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| BBB childcare + pre-K (CBO, House-passed) | $381.5B / 2022–31 (6-yr programs) | 0–5, sliding scale to 250% SMI, assumes major state non-participation | CBO 57630 |
| Warren-style universal 0–5 plans | ≈$600B+ / 10 yr | 0–5, free <200% FPL | Cornell tip sheet |
| BPC cost-of-the-gap (inaction benchmark) | $216–329B / 10 yr in lost output | 4.2M children lacking access | BPC |
| Current family price (demand-side scale) | avg $13,128/child/yr — 10% of dual-, 35% of single-income earnings | paid arrangements | BPC 2025 |
Observations for the normalization: (1) None of the headline estimates include school-age/summer — every figure above is 0–5, so the §1.4 full-scope cost is strictly higher. (2) The CBO/BBB number is not a universal-coverage cost — it embeds non-participation; a fallback design costs more and covers more. (3) Labor share verified at 50–80% (Anchor 3) means the §4 wage findings dominate any steady-state estimate, supporting H3.1's direction.
Revenue instruments (status)
Georgia lottery earmark added and verified (~30 yrs of operation). Vermont payroll tax, NM permanent fund, Multnomah surtax pending primary-source pass. Recession stress test pending.
Hypothesis calls: H3.1 (compensation dominates) — directionally supported via labor share + wage-floor findings; formal test needs the FTE model. H3.3 (0–12 ≫ 2× pre-K-only) — supported directionally: school-age is 64% of the population and absent from every collected estimate.