Date: 2026-08-03.
Findings
- Deserts: 46% of children under 6 live in a licensed-care desert (2025), improved from 51% of Americans (2018) — but rural deserts worsened to >70%, from ~66% (CAP, FFYF). The post-pandemic supply recovery was non-rural. State spread is extreme: AK 96%, HI 95%, ID 83% vs. DC 5%, MA 21%.
- H5.1 supported: urban and rural shortfalls are diverging, not converging — a single national capital instrument will misfire on one of them.
- Desert-metric caveat active (per protocol): these figures count licensed capacity only; the FCC decline (−11%, 39-state data) and license-exempt care are outside the measure. And the §12 occupancy finding (chains at ~71%) means even licensed capacity overstates staffed, usable supply — deserts measured in licensed slots understate the true staffing-adjusted shortage everywhere.
- CDFI channel confirmed as the working facilities-finance mechanism for providers outside bank credit criteria (CAP); volume-deployed quantification pending.
Feeds: §14 — geography-differentiated capital instruments; supply-first architectures must be rural-weighted or they re-run the post-ARPA pattern (recovery everywhere except where the deserts are).