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GBMT-12 · Research record · No. 12

GBMT-12 Phase 0 source register

disability/research/phase0-source-register.md
This is a working research document from the disability filing, published as written — including the parts later corrected. It is the underlying record for Whitepaper No. 12, not a summary of it.

As of: 2026-08-11. Primary publishers preferred (SSA statistical publications, SSA AFR / PaymentAccuracy, SSA OIG, Trustees Report). Advocacy and secondary compilations are labeled. This is an anchor register, not a §1–§8 bibliography.

ID Source Type / vintage What it establishes Limits
S1 SSA, DI ASR 2023 — beneficiaries in current-payment status Federal statistical report, Dec 2023 Disabled workers 7,365,987; all disabled beneficiaries 8,709,006; Chart 6 worker stock diagnosis shares (depressive/bipolar 12.4%, intellectual 3.8%, other mental 12.4%) Point-in-time stock; not awards
S2 SSA, DI ASR 2023 — disabled workers Federal statistical report Worker count and benefit averages (Table 20: 7,365,987) Same vintage as S1
S3 SSA, DI ASR 2023 — awards / Chart 10 Federal statistical report 2023 disabled-worker awards 523,834; mental disorders 12.7%; musculoskeletal 34.0%; neoplasms 13.6% Awards ≠ stock; mental umbrella includes intellectual
S4 SSA, DI ASR 2023 — Social Security, SSI, or both Federal statistical report Aged 18–64: 10.6M on disability basis; SS-only 6.6M; SSI-only 3.1M; concurrent 949,971 Dual-entitlement caution for any roll sum
S5 SSA, SSI Recipients by State and County 2023 — Table 1 Federal statistical report SSI total 7,425,331; blind and disabled 6,264,542; under 18 983,169; 18–64 4,039,319 Includes aged; blind+disabled ≠ working-age only
S6 SSA, SSI ASR 2023 — recipients who work / 1619 Federal statistical report 1619(b) all ages 116,684; aged 18–64 108,825 (2.6% of 4,148,143 blind/disabled 18–64); workers 5.1% of blind/disabled 1619(b) is Medicaid continuance without cash — not employment rate
S7 SSA, SSI ASR 2023 highlights / index Federal statistical report Profile: most recipients blind/disabled; six of ten under 65 diagnosed with a mental disorder; ~215k working (3%) Highlight claim; archive under-65 diagnosis table in §8
S8 SSA ODSSI, FY2024 Workload Data: Disability Decisions Agency workload disclosure, prepared 2025-01-30 Initial allow 38% / deny 62% (2.09M); recon 16%; hearing allow 51% / dismiss 33% / deny 16% (289k) Decisions issued in FY2024, not filing-year cohort
S9 SSA SAOR via NOSSCR mirror, FY2024 initial/recon allowance rates State Agency Operations Report extract National initial 38.3%; recon 15.9%; state variance Secondary host of SSA table; prefer SSA FOIA mirror when available
S10 SSA OIG, Major Management and Performance Challenges FY2024 Inspector General, 2024 Hearing APT 450→342 days FY2023→FY2024; pending hearings ~322k→~262k; initial APT 218→231; pending initials ~1.18M; SSA goal 270 days unmet Management-challenges framing, not a research eval
S11 SSA, FY2024 Annual Performance Report materials / APM hearings line Agency budget/performance Annual average hearings APT 342 days; Sep 2024 monthly APT 307; hearings pending 262k Annual vs month-end distinction
S12 SSA, FY2024 AFR — Other Reporting Requirements (Payment Integrity) Agency financial report FY2023 SSI IP 10.62% (6.5B); OASDIOP + UP 4.1B (~0.30%); cause categories (SSI: financial accounts, wages, ISM; OASDI: relationship/dependency, SGA, computations) Stewardship = non-medical factors; not intentional-fraud rate
S13 SSA OIG, PIIA compliance FY2023 / FY2024 progress release OIG audit / news Confirms SSI IP rise to 10.62% FY2023; self-reporting as leading overpayment driver OIG critiques agency progress; does not redefine IP as fraud
S14 SSA OACT, 2025 Trustees Report Fig. V.C3 incidence plot points Trustees Report data table Age-sex-adjusted DI incidence 6.4 (2010) → 4.0 (2019) → 2.9 (2022–23) → 3.3 (2024) Awards per thousand exposed — not prevalence
S15 SSA OACT, 2025 Long-Range Disability Assumptions Actuarial assumptions Narrative: steep post-2010 incidence decline; pandemic trough; ultimate assumption 4.6/1000 Assumptions document, not a decomposition study
S16 SSA, Effects of the Ticket to Work Program… Social Security Bulletin Agency journal synthesis of Mathematica eval ITT population effects on work-related benefit exit null/undetectable; TTW serves small share of rolls Not a single impact estimate; cites evaluation series
S17 Mamun & Page / Mathematica, Initial Impacts of TTW… Peer-reviewed / Mathematica, 2014 Service enrollment ↑; no consistent months-without-benefits impact Young new awardees; pre-2008 regs
S18 Abt / Mathematica, BOND Final Evaluation Report Vol. 1 SSA-commissioned final eval, 2018 1 − for−2 offset: no Stage-1 earnings impact; net social cost for full caseload (exec summary findings) Demonstration sample ≠ current national cliff redesign
S19 CRR, Why Did Disability Insurance Rolls Drop from 2015 to 2019? Independent brief Incidence decline + terminations drive roll drop; ALJ stringency as partial driver Secondary to S14 for the incidence series itself

Search record for negative-result / kill anchors

Anchor Search / scope Result Status
4 ★ / KC1 — intentional-fraud rate at circulating IP magnitude SSA AFR Payment Integrity; OIG PIIA; PaymentAccuracy cause categories IP rates and cause categories published; no stewardship table labeled intentional fraud at 10% SSI / mid-single-digit DI KC1 fires
KC2 — stage-resolvable waits and allowance rates SSA ODSSI workload PDF; OIG challenges; OHO public data archives; SAOR FY2024 initial/hearing allow + APT published KC2 does not fire
KC3 — 1619(b) / Ticket take-up denominators SSI ASR Tables 40–48; TTW evaluation series 1619(b) 2.6% of working-age blind/disabled published; Ticket ITT denom in evals KC3 does not fire for 1619(b)
Anchor 5 awards band 25–35% DI ASR Chart 10 Awards share 12.7% (2023) Prior false (confirm GBMT-11)
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