Verification Protocol V3. Every factual assertion on site/elder-care/index.html (P001–P218) and site/elder-care/sources/index.html (S001–S207). 425 rows. Verdict vocabulary per V7: CONFIRMED · CORRECTED · OVERSTATED · UNVERIFIABLE · STALE. CONFIRMED-INTERNAL = reproducible from the committed record, no external referent (scorecard arithmetic, self-descriptions of process).
Adjudication and sources are in verification-log.md. Extraction was performed by the adjudicating model directly — nothing was delegated — so the V3 guardrail is reported as a self-consistency re-extraction (see the log's "Extraction guardrail" section) rather than as a diff against a cheaper ledger.
A. Whitepaper — site/elder-care/index.html
| # | Claim | Line | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| P001 | Title: "Elder Care — Gubment Policy Whitepaper No. 7" | 15 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| P002 | meta description: workforce-vs-funding test, dead staffing rule, one architecture with a real trial | 16 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| P003 | og:title "workforce or funding — which one actually caps home care?" | 21 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| P004 | og:description "The workforce theory came back INDETERMINATE. A federal staffing rule got killed twice." | 22 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| P005 | canonical www.gubment.com/elder-care/ |
17 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| P006 | Whitepaper No. 7, Series GBMT-7, Filed 2026-08-03 | 244 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| P007 | H1: does workforce or funding actually cap home care? | 245 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| P008 | "A feasibility assessment of LTSS for older Americans" | 246 | OVERSTATED — scope; majority of the HCBS evidence used is not older-adult (see log C1) |
| P009 | "a federal staffing rule killed twice" | 246 | CONFIRMED |
| P010 | "the one architecture in the whole candidate set with a real trial behind it" | 246 | CONFIRMED |
| P011 | Dossier SUBJECT: LONG-TERM CARE | 252 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| P012 | Dossier SCOPE: $415B A YEAR | 253 | CONFIRMED |
| P013 | Dossier SCOPE: 61% MEDICAID | 253 | CONFIRMED |
| P014 | Dossier FINDING: MEDICARE MOSTLY DOESN'T PAY FOR THIS | 254 | CONFIRMED |
| P015 | Dossier STATUS: WHITEPAPER NO. 7 — LIVE | 255 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| P016 | Rail verdict "Medicare mostly doesn't pay for this." | 279/463 | CONFIRMED |
| P017 | Cite line: Policy Whitepaper No. 7, Aug 2026 | 299/483 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| P018 | Inquiry tested whether workforce capacity, not Medicaid funding, is the binding HCBS constraint | 310 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| P019 | "the same shape of finding our childcare and housing reports reached" | 310 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| P020 | "a 2021 federal funding surge earmarked for direct-care wages" | 310 | OVERSTATED — ARPA §9817 was a 10-pt HCBS FMAP bump, not wage-earmarked (log B2) |
| P021 | Pattern equally explained by economy-wide post-pandemic wage inflation | 310 | CONFIRMED |
| P022 | Hypothesis reported INDETERMINATE, not confirmed | 310 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| P023 | 2024 federal minimum-staffing rule vacated by two courts | 310 | CONFIRMED (90 FR 55687) |
| P024 | "mooted by a ten-year congressional moratorium" | 310 | CORRECTED — enactment 2025-07-04 → 2034-09-30 (Pub. L. 119-21 §71111) ≈ 9 yr 3 mo |
| P025 | "dead, not merely contested" | 310 | CONFIRMED |
| P026 | Nine candidate architectures scored on cost/quality/workforce/caregiver relief/autonomy | 310 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| P027 | Only Cash & Counseling anchored in a genuine RCT | 310 | CONFIRMED |
| P028 | C&C is self-direction letting Medicaid beneficiaries pay family members | 310 | CONFIRMED |
| P029 | C&C does not win under every weighting once its cost increase is scored | 310 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| P030 | That correction was made on independent re-score | 310 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| P031 | Second, structurally blinded re-score moved 25 of 40 cells | 310 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| P032 | It forced withdrawal of the most confidently stated finding | 310 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| P033 | Scoring scale marked instruments down for being under-researched | 310 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| P034 | The declared clear loser had almost no evidence either way | 310 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| P035 | Corrected, most of the board sits at neutral | 310 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| P036 | "the domain's conventional wisdom is less settled than either political party assumes" | 310 | UNVERIFIABLE — no party-position analysis in the record |
| P037 | "our own scorecard was more confident than its evidence" | 310 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| P038 | 56% will need severe LTSS | 330 | CONFIRMED (ASPE Aug 2022 rev.) |
| P039 | $415B total US LTSS spending | 331 | CONFIRMED (KFF, 2022) |
| P040 | 61% Medicaid's share | 332 | CONFIRMED (KFF) |
| P041 | "$209M OAA caregiver support, total" | 333 | OVERSTATED + UNVERIFIABLE — Title III-E only, not all OAA caregiver funding; FY2026 figure not reached at primary tier |
| P042 | >half turning 65 develop a severe LTC need before death — 56% on the current model | 335 | CONFIRMED |
| P043 | Not the 70% figure "still circulating from a superseded estimate" | 335 | OVERSTATED — 70% is ASPE 2019 (HRS), a different model and definition, not formally superseded |
| P044 | Medicare covers acute and narrow post-acute care, not LTC | 335 | CONFIRMED |
| P045 | Medicaid reached only after asset spend-down | 335 | CONFIRMED |
| P046 | Medicaid covers 61% of the $415B | 335 | CONFIRMED |
| P047 | "home- and community-based spending having overtaken institutional spending nationally in 2013" | 335 | CORRECTED — the 2013 crossover is a Medicaid LTSS fact; attached here to the all-payer $415B total |
| P048 | No single canonical "LTSS spending" figure exists | 335 | CONFIRMED |
| P049 | Federal categories mix Medicare rehab with Medicaid custodial care, understating Medicaid's share | 335 | CONFIRMED |
| P050 | Src: ASPE 2022 (DYNASIM4) · KFF 10 Things · CMS NHEA | 336 | CONFIRMED |
| P051 | Plain talk: Medicare mostly doesn't pay; Medicaid does, after spend-down | 337 | CONFIRMED |
| P052 | H2: Medicaid pays for this, not Medicare — and only after the savings are gone | 328 | CONFIRMED |
| P053 | Stamp: Indeterminate | 343 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| P054 | $37.1B ARPA HCBS funding, 2021 | 345 | OVERSTATED — MACPAC: $37.1B planned, state and federal funds |
| P055 | "71% of it went to wages" | 346 | CORRECTED — $26.3B was "workforce recruitment and retention" (rate increases, bonuses, training excluded) |
| P056 | 710K+ on HCBS waitlists, 2024 | 347 | CONFIRMED (KFF) — but see P063/C1 on composition |
| P057 | 36.5% home health aides foreign-born | 348 | CONFIRMED at secondary tier; 2019 ACS vintage, presented as current |
| P058 | Best natural experiment available is the 2021 funding surge | 350 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| P059 | "$37.1B, 71% routed to direct-care wages and hiring bonuses" | 350 | OVERSTATED (as P055) |
| P060 | Wages moved substantially where states spent it that way | 350 | CONFIRMED at secondary tier |
| P061 | Colorado direct-care wage 12.41→ 18/hour | 350 | UNVERIFIABLE at primary tier |
| P062 | Vacancy and turnover did not improve to match | 350 | CONFIRMED (KFF 2023 50-state survey) |
| P063 | National HCBS waiting list grew ~692,679 (2021) → over 710,000 (2024) | 350 | OVERSTATED — KFF: "roughly 0.7 million in most years since 2016," series not comparable over time, definition changed in 2023 |
| P064 | "the opposite of what capacity-targeted funding should produce if funding were the binding constraint" | 350 | OVERSTATED — inference rests on P063; only 5% of ARPA funds targeted waitlists |
| P065 | Src: MACPAC ARPA §9817 (2026) · KFF 50-state HCBS surveys | 351 | CONFIRMED |
| P066 | "That pattern fits the workforce theory." | 352 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| P067 | Wage-inflation confound "nobody has ruled out" | 352 | CONFIRMED (V5: MACPAC states no evaluation requirement) |
| P068 | The program carried no evaluation requirement | 352 | CONFIRMED (MACPAC, primary) |
| P069 | The federal assessment that could settle this is still pending | 352 | CONFIRMED (GSA/AIR, report anticipated 2026) |
| P070 | "The honest verdict is open, not proven." | 352 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| P071 | More than a third of home health aides are foreign-born | 353 | CONFIRMED at secondary tier (2019 ACS) |
| P072 | "over twice the rate for the workforce overall" | 353 | CONFIRMED as of the 2019 base (17%); STALE against 2024 (19.2% → 1.9×) |
| P073 | Real 2025–2026 immigration-enforcement changes have hit this sector already | 353 | CONFIRMED at secondary tier |
| P074 | So far fear-driven absenteeism reported locally, not a measured national decline | 353 | CONFIRMED |
| P075 | H2: wages rose, vacancies didn't fall, nobody's proven which caused what | 342 | CONFIRMED |
| P076 | CLASS Act, a federal LTC insurance program, enacted 2010 | 359 | CONFIRMED (ACA Title VIII, 2010-03-23) |
| P077 | Collapsed in 2013 without enrolling a person, opening a claim, or collecting a premium | 359 | CONFIRMED (repealed by Pub. L. 112-240 §642, 2013-01-02) |
| P078 | HHS's own 19-month review found voluntary signup let only the sickest buy in | 359 | CONFIRMED at secondary tier |
| P079 | No benefit design could price around it | 359 | CONFIRMED at secondary tier |
| P080 | WA Cares removes that channel with a mandatory 0.58% payroll tax | 359 | CONFIRMED (RCW 50B.04.080; WA Cares Fund) — see log D2 on the 2026 rate-setting change |
| P081 | $36,500 lifetime cap vs CLASS's proposed open-ended benefit | 359 | CONFIRMED (365 benefit units × $100, RCW 50B.04.010/.060) |
| P082 | "the two programs are not a clean contrast" | 359 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| P083 | Adverse-selection failure and inadequate-benefit failure could look identical from outside | 359 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| P084 | "WA Cares' first-ever payment went out July 1, 2026" | 359 | OVERSTATED — statute makes benefits payable from that date; no payment event verified |
| P085 | "there is no outcome data yet" | 359 | CONFIRMED |
| P086 | Src: HHS actuarial review of CLASS · ATRA 2012 · Washington ESD, WA Cares Fund | 360 | CONFIRMED |
| P087 | Stamp: Confounded natural experiment | 361 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| P088 | Washington modeled a state reinsurance backstop instead of a public benefit | 362 | CONFIRMED at secondary tier |
| P089 | Its 2015 feasibility study found "little potential to generate savings" | 362 | UNVERIFIABLE — Milliman study never retrieved (record's own disclosure) |
| P090 | "suggestive evidence … from one state, reported secondhand, not a verdict on every reinsurance mechanism" | 362 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL (correctly self-limited) |
| P091 | Standalone individual LTC market shrank from 125 carriers (2000) to ~7–10 today | 362 | CONFIRMED at secondary tier; no census post-2016 |
| P092 | Plain talk: CLASS collapsed because only sick people signed up; WA's benefit is smaller and capped | 363 | CONFIRMED |
| P093 | H2: the last federal program died before it opened; the new one hasn't paid a claim yet | 358 | OVERSTATED — conflicts with P084's own "first-ever payment went out" |
| P094 | Nursing home care is a mandatory Medicaid entitlement | 369 | CONFIRMED at statutory tier (42 U.S.C. §1396a(a)(10)(A) + §1396d(a)(4)(A)) |
| P095 | HCBS runs through optional, capped waivers with waiting lists in most states | 369 | CONFIRMED at statutory tier (§1396n(c)(1), (c)(9)); 40 of 51 states, KFF 2024 |
| P096 | "backwards from the 'home care is cheaper' intuition" | 369 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| P097 | Waitlist ~710,000 by 2024, about 40% above the seeded prior | 369 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL (arithmetic: 710/500 = 1.42) |
| P098 | Indiana waitlist grew 12,800 → over 17,000 "in eighteen months" | 369 | CORRECTED — record dates are July 2024 → Feb 2026 = 19 months |
| P099 | Indiana sends two-thirds to three-quarters of Medicaid LTC dollars to institutional care | 369 | CONFIRMED at secondary tier (34% vs ~23% HCBS, both disputed in record) |
| P100 | "But it is one state" | 369 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| P101 | Texas is the one state where the relevant spending data is unknowable, excluded from two national trackers | 369 | CONFIRMED at secondary tier (V5: exclusion documented, not independently re-verified) |
| P102 | Src: KFF Waiting Lists 2016–2025 · Indiana FSSA/DDARS · AARP LTSS Scorecard | 370 | CORRECTED — the KFF brief relied on is "2016 to 2024" |
| P103 | Stamp: Consistent, not confirmed | 371 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| P104 | Plain talk: money isn't obviously the problem; structure might be | 372 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| P105 | H2: nursing homes are a legal right, home care is a waiting list | 368 | CONFIRMED |
| P106 | Stamp: Prior broken | 378 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| P107 | 3.48 HPRD in the dead federal rule | 380 | CONFIRMED (89 FR 40876) |
| P108 | "38+DC states already exceeded old floor" | 381 | OVERSTATED — the pre-2024 federal standard had no numeric HPRD floor; record's own finding is that 29 states require under 3.5 HPRD and 15 under 2.5 |
| P109 | +11% mortality at PE-owned homes | 382 | CONFIRMED (NBER 28474 rev. 2023 / RFS 37(4) 2024) |
| P110 | The 2024 rule is dead, not merely under litigation risk | 384 | CONFIRMED |
| P111 | Two federal courts vacated it | 384 | CONFIRMED (90 FR 55687 names AHCA v. Kennedy, N.D. Tex.; Kansas v. Kennedy, N.D. Iowa) |
| P112 | Congress imposed a ten-year moratorium | 384 | CORRECTED — see P024 |
| P113 | CMS formally repealed it effective February 2026 | 384 | CONFIRMED (eff. 2026-02-02) |
| P114 | 38 states + DC already exceeded the old federal floor before the rule existed | 384 | OVERSTATED — see P108 |
| P115 | "no state staffing law has been struck down" | 384 | UNVERIFIABLE (V5 negative; no docket search in the record or this pass) |
| P116 | New York: ~400 violating facilities identified with almost no penalties for years | 384 | CONFIRMED at secondary tier (single case, trade press) |
| P117 | Src: Federal Register (Dec 2025 repeal) · Center for Medicare Advocacy · "Health Affairs 2025, 22-state staffing panel" | 385 | CORRECTED — the panel published in the March 3, 2026 issue |
| P118 | PE-owned nursing homes show an 11% causal increase in short-stay mortality | 386 | CONFIRMED — LATE for compliers; MTE analysis recovers a similar ATE |
| P119 | "the most rigorous study run on the question" | 386 | OVERSTATED — no systematic comparison of designs in the record |
| P120 | A design built specifically to correct for which patients end up at which homes | 386 | CONFIRMED |
| P121 | "No published rebuttal exists." | 386 | OVERSTATED — record's own text is "no direct econometric rebuttal was located"; a JAMA COVID-era comparison is on record |
| P122 | Src: Gupta, Howell, Yannelis & Gupta, RFS (2024) | 387 | CONFIRMED |
| P123 | Plain talk: courts killed it, Congress made sure it can't come back for a decade | 388 | OVERSTATED — see P024 |
| P124 | Plain talk: PE homes have measurably higher death rates, nobody's found a real hole | 388 | OVERSTATED — see P121 |
| P125 | H2: the federal staffing rule is dead, twice over | 377 | CONFIRMED |
| P126 | The inquiry assumed assisted living had overtaken nursing homes in resident count | 394 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| P127 | ~1.24M nursing-home residents vs 1.016M in assisted living | 394 | UNVERIFIABLE at primary tier (NPALS and CASPER both blocked this pass) |
| P128 | "the comparison is three years stale on one side" | 394 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| P129 | NH census flat-to-declining while AL keeps growing, so the gap could be smaller or closed | 394 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL (correctly hedged) |
| P130 | "two federal watchdog reports eight years apart both found most states can't count AL safety incidents" | 394 | CORRECTED — GAO-26-107884 is Information on Federal Spending and Medicaid Coverage; it makes no incident-reporting finding |
| P131 | The federal reporting fix won't take effect until 2027 at the earliest | 394 | CONFIRMED at secondary tier |
| P132 | Src: NPALS (2022) · KFF/CMS CASPER (2025) · GAO-18-179 (2018) · GAO-26-107884 (2026) | 395 | CONFIRMED (both GAO numbers exist; 2018-01-05 and 2026-06-02) |
| P133 | Plain talk: AL is still smaller than nursing homes by headcount | 396 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| P134 | H2: still the smaller setting, and still uncounted | 393 | CONFIRMED |
| P135 | Stamp: Kill condition fired | 402 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| P136 | 63M family caregivers, US | 404 | CONFIRMED at secondary tier (AARP/NAC 2025, all ages) |
| P137 | 234B–1.01T range of "the" value | 405 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL — but see P140 |
| P138 | 19.6% caregivers with poor mental health | 406 | UNVERIFIABLE at primary tier (cdc.gov blocked) |
| P139 | Unpaid caregiving's economic value cannot be reconciled to a single defensible figure | 408 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| P140 | Estimates "for a comparable period" range 234B–1.01T | 408 | CORRECTED — $234B is CBO 2013 (2011 data); $1.01T is AARP 2026 (2024 data). Not comparable periods |
| P141 | Spread explained by population scope, wage-rate assumption, hours source | 408 | OVERSTATED — the record's own anchor 4 shows AARP's own series moved 350B→600B→$1.01T over time; elapsed time is a fourth driver, unnamed |
| P142 | "There is no 'the' number." | 408 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| P143 | Src: AARP/NAC Valuing the Invaluable (2026) · CBO (2013) · RAND (2014) | 409 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| P144 | 63 million Americans provide unpaid care | 410 | CONFIRMED at secondary tier |
| P145 | Over a quarter reduced work hours because of it | 410 | CONFIRMED at secondary tier (AARP/NAC 2025) |
| P146 | CDC's national health survey found the caregiver mental-health gap widened over the last decade | 410 | OVERSTATED — record's own red team #19 downgraded this to pandemic-confounded and suggestive |
| P147 | The one architecture anchored by an actual RCT — Cash and Counseling | 410 | CONFIRMED |
| P148 | C&C lets Medicaid recipients hire their own caregivers, including family | 410 | CONFIRMED |
| P149 | Measurably improved satisfaction and health | 410 | CONFIRMED at secondary tier (ASPE/Mathematica) |
| P150 | "It did not save money" | 410 | CONFIRMED |
| P151 | It delivered more of the authorized care rather than the same amount more cheaply | 410 | CONFIRMED |
| P152 | Src: CDC BRFSS Caregiver Module (2021) · ASPE Cash and Counseling Demonstration | 411 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| P153 | Plain talk: no trustworthy single dollar figure — that's a finding, not a gap | 412 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| P154 | Plain talk: the one strong trial says paying them directly works, it just isn't cheaper | 412 | CONFIRMED |
| P155 | H2: no honest dollar figure, one genuine trial | 401 | CONFIRMED |
| P156 | Germany, Japan, Netherlands are the usual LTC-financing comparators | 418 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| P157 | All three show real, current strain rather than a settled model | 418 | CONFIRMED at secondary tier |
| P158 | Germany needed federal loans to hold its 2026 premium steady | 418 | UNVERIFIABLE — cited to NBER w31870, which contains no such content; record's actual source is a German consumer-finance blog |
| P159 | German workforce vacancy rate rose 110% in a decade | 418 | CORRECTED (citation) — NBER w31870 (Long-term Care in Germany, Nov 2023) contains no vacancy statistics at all |
| P160 | Japan projects a 570,000-worker shortfall by 2040 | 418 | UNVERIFIABLE at primary tier (MHLW not reached) |
| P161 | Japan "is already raising copays" | 418 | CORRECTED — record says copay increases are being proposed |
| P162 | The Netherlands' 2015 reform works against its own cost-containment goal | 418 | CONFIRMED at secondary tier |
| P163 | Score all three as donors of design fragments, not whole-system precedents | 418 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| P164 | Src: NBER w31870 · MHLW 9th LTCI plan · PMC11984009 (Wlz) | 419 | CORRECTED — w31870 does not support either Germany claim |
| P165 | Plain talk: all three are raising rates, tightening benefits, or short-staffed | 420 | OVERSTATED — "raising" for Japan, see P161 |
| P166 | H2: three systems, all mid-crisis, none a finished blueprint | 417 | CONFIRMED |
| P167 | Table row: FEDERAL LTC INSURANCE 2/3/2/3/3 | 429 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL (matches reconciled matrix) |
| P168 | Table row: HCBS DE-CAPPING 2/3/4/3/4 | 430 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| P169 | Table row: WAGE FLOOR 3/3/3/3/3 | 431 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| P170 | Table row: CASH & COUNSELING 1/3/3/5/4 | 432 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| P171 | Table row: CREDIT FOR CARING —/—/—/2–3/— | 433 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| P172 | Table row: PACE EXPANSION all unscored | 434 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| P173 | Table row: FEDERAL AL STANDARDS 3/3/4/3/3 | 435 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| P174 | Table row: OAA/NFCSP EXPANSION 3/3/3/3/3 | 436 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| P175 | Table row: PRIVATE LTC INS. REFORM 2/3/3/3/3 | 437 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| P176 | Table row: CASH (COMPARATOR) 3/3/3/3/3 | 438 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| P177 | Nine candidate architectures, scored 1–5 against five objectives | 441 | OVERSTATED — two of the nine are unscored; disclosed only in the honesty box |
| P178 | Only C&C is anchored by an actual randomized trial | 441 | CONFIRMED |
| P179 | It wins decisively on caregiver relief regardless of weighting | 441 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL (26 vs 22 under CR×3) |
| P180 | Its own trial data show a real cost increase, pulling its cost rank down | 441 | CONFIRMED |
| P181 | It does not win "no matter what"; the first-pass scorecard overstated that it did | 441 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| P182 | A second, harder re-score moved 25 of these 40 cells | 442 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| P183 | The most important thing it found was how little the board knows | 442 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| P184 | First re-score was told not to look; this one was structurally prevented | 442 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| P185 | Scale defect: "no evidence found" was a low score while a high score required evidence | 442 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| P186 | Twenty cells at 1 or 2 rested on no evidence at all, in either direction | 442 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL (section B of the re-score log has exactly 20) |
| P187 | Corrected, 30 of the 40 cells sit at dead neutral | 442 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL (independently recounted: 30) |
| P188 | The differences between most of these instruments disappear | 442 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| P189 | Withdrawing "private LTC insurance reform ranks last under all three weightings, with no exceptions" | 442 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| P190 | Four of that row's five cells were empty | 442 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| P191 | It was the least stable finding on the board, not the most | 442 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| P192 | The wage floor no longer leads on workforce; it ties the do-nothing cash comparator | 442 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL (21 = 21; two rows at 24 lead) |
| P193 | The sequencing argument gets no support from the scorecard | 442 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| P194 | Src line: 9 × 5 × 3, two independent re-scores, reconciliation log committed | 443 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| P195 | Stamp: Twice re-scored; one headline withdrawn | 444 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| P196 | H2: the best-evidenced fix isn't the one anyone's proposing | 425 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| P197 | Headline hypothesis unresolved; workforce-vs-funding came back INDETERMINATE | 450 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| P198 | The best available test has an unruled-out macro-wage-inflation confound | 450 | CONFIRMED |
| P199 | "Our scoring scale was broken, and it broke in one direction." | 450 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| P200 | A cell could only score high on evidence, but scored low on its absence | 450 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| P201 | Corrected, 30 of 40 cells sit at neutral | 450 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| P202 | Most apparent differences were differences in how hard we looked | 450 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| P203 | PACE is still unscored; it now has two independent readings in the record | 450 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| P204 | Entering it needs criteria written too late; not backdating them | 450 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| P205 | "Our best evidence has no row." | 450 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| P206 | "an 11% mortality increase … across seven million patients" | 450 | CORRECTED — the analysis sample is 4.2 million unique short-stay patients |
| P207 | It attaches to an architecture never put on the board | 450 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| P208 | Texas's numbers are unknowable, not just unfavorable | 450 | CONFIRMED at secondary tier |
| P209 | WA Cares has zero months of real performance data; first benefit paid weeks before this report | 450 | CONFIRMED (statutory start date); "paid" per P084 |
| P210 | "Twice re-scored, not final." | 450 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| P211 | Two blind re-scores of a sibling filing moved entirely different cells | 450 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL (GBMT-10) |
| P212 | Receipts: "12-workstream protocol" | 454 | CORRECTED — the sources page and the record both say eleven (nine executed) |
| P213 | Receipts: anchor table preserving corrected errors (superseded 70% vs current 56%) | 454 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| P214 | Receipts: deviations log (31 entries) | 454 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL (31 rows counted) |
| P215 | Receipts: red-team pass, 22 resolved items, run as a parallel workflow | 454 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| P216 | Receipts: two re-scores, second structurally blinded, reconciliation log publishes both readings and one withdrawn headline | 454 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| P217 | Receipts: "all public" | 454 | OVERSTATED — the published deviations digest omits entries 22–29 |
| P218 | Next filing: Drugs (GBMT-8) | 491 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
B. Sources & data page — site/elder-care/sources/index.html
Located by record and anchor row rather than line number (the page is generated).
| # | Claim | Where | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| S001 | Scope: LTSS for older Americans and adults with disabilities — HCBS, AL/residential, SNF, unpaid family care, and the financing under all four | R0 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL — and the disclosure the whitepaper drops (see log C1) |
| S002 | "Imports the gubment method (M1–M8) in full" | R0 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| S003 | Phase 0 verdict: GO | R0 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| S004 | Phase 0 (2026-08-03) verified the anchor table's starred rows | R0 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| S005 | Committed a first ACS-derived population baseline (65+ and 85+ by state) | R0 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| S006 | Kill condition fired: caregiving valuation not reconcilable to a defensible single range | R0 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| S007 | The 2024 CMS staffing rule turned out to be dead, not merely contested | R0 | CONFIRMED |
| S008 | Assisted living does not out-census skilled nursing after all | R0 | UNVERIFIABLE at primary tier (see P127) |
| S009 | Eleven workstreams (§2–§12) run to varying depth | R0 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL — contradicts P212's "12-workstream" |
| S010 | Red-team pass: Workflow, 11 agents, 22 items resolved, 3 scorecard cells reconciled | R0 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| S011 | That re-score was instructed not to read the scorecard, not structurally prevented | R0 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| S012 | A genuinely blinded pass ran 2026-08-10 and moved 25 of 40 ranked cells, withdrawing one headline | R0 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| S013 | Anchor 1 prior: a majority turning 65 will need some paid or unpaid LTSS before death | R1 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| S014 | ASPE 2022 (DYNASIM4): 56% will develop severe need | R1 | CONFIRMED at agency-primary tier |
| S015 | ASPE 2019 (HRS-based): 70% | R1 | CONFIRMED at agency-primary tier |
| S016 | Kemper/Komisar/Alecxih 2005: 69% | R1 | CONFIRMED (cited inside the ASPE 2019 brief) |
| S017 | Majority claim holds either way | R1 | CONFIRMED |
| S018 | The commonly-cited 70% is ASPE's "superseded" 2019 vintage; cite 56%, flag 70% as a citation trap | R1 | OVERSTATED — different model and different definition, not a superseding revision |
| S019 | Anchor 2 prior: 1M+ additional direct-care jobs by early 2030s | R1 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| S020 | PHI 2025: 772K+ new jobs from growth, 2024–2034 | R1 | UNVERIFIABLE at primary tier (BLS projections not re-pulled) |
| S021 | 9.7M total openings including replacement/turnover | R1 | UNVERIFIABLE at primary tier |
| S022 | Corrected on red team: the "~10x undersold" comparison mixed growth-only against growth+replacement | R1 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| S023 | Like-for-like is ~25% undersold, not 10x | R1 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL (772/1000 = 0.77) |
| S024 | Anchor 3 prior: insurers fell from 100+ to a small handful | R1 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| S025 | Peak 125 (2000) → 104 (2002), AHIP survey, never repeated | R1 | CONFIRMED at secondary tier |
| S026 | ~12–15 by 2014 (NAIC) | R1 | UNVERIFIABLE at primary tier |
| S027 | Current ~7–10 standalone individual carriers (2024–25 trade lists) | R1 | CONFIRMED at trade-press tier, self-disclosed |
| S028 | LIMRA corroborates >75% exit by 2012 | R1 | UNVERIFIABLE at primary tier |
| S029 | No rigorous market census exists post-2016 | R1 | UNVERIFIABLE (V5 negative) |
| S030 | Market partly shifted to hybrid life/LTC combo products ($4.2B new premium, 2024) | R1 | UNVERIFIABLE at primary tier |
| S031 | Anchor 4 prior: caregivers in the tens of millions, value in the hundreds of billions | R1 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| S032 | AARP/NAC 2025: 63M caregivers (all ages) | R1 | CONFIRMED at secondary tier |
| S033 | AARP Valuing the Invaluable 2026 (2024 data): 59M adult caregivers, 49.5B hours, $1.01T | R1 | CONFIRMED at secondary tier |
| S034 | Up from $600B (2021) and $350B (2006) | R1 | CONFIRMED at secondary tier |
| S035 | CBO 2013 (elderly-only, replacement-cost): $234B | R1 | UNVERIFIABLE — cbo.gov DataDome-blocked (atlas UNOBTAINED.md §1–2 records the same block) |
| S036 | RAND 2014 (elderly-only, opportunity-cost): $522B | R1 | UNVERIFIABLE at primary tier |
| S037 | Not reconcilable to a single defensible figure — the headline finding | R1 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| S038 | Red team clarified: three named methodological drivers, not true irreconcilability | R1 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| S039 | The instruction to report a conditional range, never a point estimate, stands | R1 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| S040 | Anchor 5 (asset limit ~$2,000) not attempted, queued | R1 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| S041 | WA Cares rate 0.58% of gross wages, no wage cap, unchanged since enactment | R1 | OVERSTATED — RCW 50B.04.080(1): from 2026-01-01 the rate is set biennially by the Pension Funding Council, capped at .58% |
| S042 | Cap $36,500 (2026), auto-inflation-adjusted | R1 | CONFIRMED (WA Cares Fund: "$36,500 (grows over time with inflation)") |
| S043 | Premiums delayed Jan 2022 → July 2023 | R1 | CONFIRMED (RCW 50B.04.080(1): "beginning July 1, 2023") |
| S044 | Opt-out window through Dec 2022 | R1 | CONFIRMED at secondary tier |
| S045 | SB 5291 (2025) loosened vesting, no rate/cap change | R1 | UNVERIFIABLE at primary tier |
| S046 | Benefits first became payable July 1, 2026 | R1 | CONFIRMED at statutory tier (RCW 50B.04.060(1)) |
| S047 | "Delayed and revised once" undersold the amendment history | R1 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| S048 | Research lands weeks after the first-ever payout, essentially zero months of payout data | R1 | CONFIRMED |
| S049 | 2024 rule: 3.48 total HPRD, 0.55 RN, 2.45 NA, 24/7 on-site RN, phased 2026–2029; "Original (Apr 2024)" | R1 | CONFIRMED at agency-primary tier on every figure; the rule was published 2024-05-10 (89 FR 40876) |
| S050 | Rescinded effective Feb 2, 2026 (CMS interim final rule, Dec 3, 2025) | R1 | CONFIRMED at agency-primary tier (90 FR 55687) |
| S051 | Following vacatur in two federal courts | R1 | CONFIRMED (per the repeal rule's own text) |
| S052 | Plus a statutory 10-year moratorium via H.R. 1 (2025) | R1 | CORRECTED — Pub. L. 119-21 §71111 runs to 2034-09-30 |
| S053 | Facility-assessment and Medicaid staffing-spend-transparency provisions survive | R1 | CONFIRMED at agency-primary tier (repeal touches only §§483.5, 483.35) |
| S054 | MAJOR reframe: the rule is dead by both courts and Congress | R1 | CONFIRMED |
| S055 | Anchor 8 prior: waiting lists ~500,000+ nationally with substantial double-counting | R1 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| S056 | KFF tracker: ~692,679 nationally in 2021 | R1 | UNVERIFIABLE — the current KFF brief reports the series as "roughly 0.7 million in most years since 2016"; the 692,679 point is not in it |
| S057 | Growing to ~710,000+ by 2024 (+2.6% 2023→2024) | R1 | CONFIRMED (KFF, both figures verbatim) |
| S058 | Average wait fell 45→36 months (2021–23), rose back to ~40 (2024) | R1 | CONFIRMED (KFF, verbatim) |
| S059 | CA, NM, TX together hold over half of all waitlisted individuals | R1 | CONFIRMED at secondary tier |
| S060 | Texas's own 2015 data shows ~95% duplicate-listing inflation | R1 | CONFIRMED at secondary tier |
| S061 | Seed undersold the scale — actual ~40% higher, still rising through 2024 despite ARPA §9817 | R1 | OVERSTATED — KFF states the series is not comparable over time and changed definition in 2023 |
| S062 | Anchor 9: not attempted in Phase 0; confirmed during full execution | R1 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| S063 | Of KFF's $415B (2022) total, HCBS $284B vs institutional $131B | R1 | CONFIRMED (KFF, verbatim) |
| S064 | HCBS spending crossed institutional spending nationally in 2013 | R1 | CORRECTED — a Medicaid-LTSS fact, not an all-payer one (see P047) |
| S065 | Gupta/Howell/Yannelis/Gupta, RFS 37(4) 2024 (NBER WP 28474) | R1 | CONFIRMED |
| S066 | ">7M Medicare patients", 2005–2017, within-facility IV design | R1 | CORRECTED — "Our analysis sample contains 4.2 million unique short-stay patients" |
| S067 | "OLS: +10% mortality" | R1 | CORRECTED — the paper reports an OLS effect of 0.3 pp, "about 2% of the mean" |
| S068 | Causal estimate: +11% | R1 | CONFIRMED (LATE; MTE recovers a similar ATE) |
| S069 | ~20,150–21,000 excess deaths over the sample | R1 | CORRECTED — the Aug 2023 revision states "about 22,500 additional deaths" and ~172,400 lost life-years |
| S070 | Also +19% billed spending | R1 | CORRECTED — IV estimates are +8% per stay and +6% per stay + 90 days |
| S071 | ~50% higher antipsychotic use | R1 | CORRECTED — the paper contains no antipsychotic result; its three well-being measures are mobility, ulcers, pain |
| S072 | "Confirmed and precise, largely uncontested" | R1 | OVERSTATED — the authors' own MTE finds "small beneficial effects for some patients" |
| S073 | One JAMA COVID-era comparison found PE facilities in line with industry average | R1 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| S074 | Confidence downgraded to medium-high; core estimate unrebutted | R1 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| S075 | AL/residential care ~1.016M residents (NPALS 2022) | R1 | UNVERIFIABLE at primary tier (cdc.gov blocked) |
| S076 | SNF ~1.24M residents (KFF/CMS CASPER, July 2025) | R1 | UNVERIFIABLE at primary tier |
| S077 | Prior likely broken but vintage-mismatched and directionally unstable | R1 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| S078 | No independent current AL count obtainable (NIC MAP paywalled) | R1 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| S079 | The research/regulatory-attention-asymmetry half of the claim remains plausible | R1 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| S080 | NFCSP FY2026 appropriation ≈ $209M (ACL) | R1 | UNVERIFIABLE — ACL's own NFCSP page publishes only FY2013–FY2016 (145.6M–150.6M) |
| S081 | Medicaid HCBS spending ≈ $116B (FY2020) to $162B (CY2020) | R1 | UNVERIFIABLE at primary tier |
| S082 | Total Medicaid LTSS ≈ $257B (2023) | R1 | UNVERIFIABLE at primary tier |
| S083 | NFCSP is ~three orders of magnitude below Medicaid HCBS (209Mvs 140B), not two | R1 | OVERSTATED — the ratio is ~670×, i.e. 2.8 orders, and both inputs are unverified |
| S084 | NFCSP funds well under 0.1% of even the lowest independent valuation | R1 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL (209M/234B = 0.089%) |
| S085 | §2 headline: no single canonical LTSS spending number exists | R2 | CONFIRMED |
| S086 | 415B(2022) : Medicaid61253B) | R2 | CONFIRMED |
| S087 | Out-of-pocket 17% (~$71B) | R2 | CONFIRMED (KFF, verbatim) |
| S088 | Medicare + private LTC insurance ~21% (~$87B), not separable by any current source | R2 | CONFIRMED |
| S089 | HCBS (284B)hasexceededinstitutional(131B) since 2013 | R2 | CORRECTED — see S064 |
| S090 | Urban DYNASIM and CBO diverge substantially from NHEA-based accounting | R2 | CONFIRMED at secondary tier |
| S091 | The field has no single measurement convention | R2 | CONFIRMED |
| S092 | §3 headline: money to wages, wages rose, neither vacancies nor waiting lists improved; INDETERMINATE | R2 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| S093 | ARPA §9817 put 71% ($26.3B of $37.1B) toward workforce recruitment/retention | R2 | CONFIRMED at agency-primary tier (MACPAC Fig. 1) — the record is right where P055 is wrong |
| S094 | Colorado's direct-care wage 12.41→ 18 | R2 | UNVERIFIABLE at primary tier |
| S095 | Every state responding to KFF's 2023 survey still reported shortages | R2 | CONFIRMED at secondary tier |
| S096 | National HCBS waiting lists grew ~692,679 (2021) → ~710,000+ (2024) | R2 | OVERSTATED — see S056/S061 |
| S097 | Red team downgraded the verdict to plain INDETERMINATE | R2 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| S098 | Foreign-born share 28% nationally, 36.5% for home health aides — more than double the general workforce | R2 | CONFIRMED at secondary tier against the 2019 base; STALE against 2024 |
| S099 | The actual labor-supply effect is anecdotal-only so far | R2 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| S100 | §4 headline: "Reinsurance was actually tried by a state, and it failed" | R2 | OVERSTATED — red team #8 already softened this to "suggestive negative evidence from one unread secondary-sourced state study"; the headline was not updated |
| S101 | Washington's 2015 Milliman study found "little potential to generate savings" | R2 | UNVERIFIABLE — PDF never retrieved (record's own disclosure) |
| S102 | The same study led Washington to build WA Cares instead | R2 | CONFIRMED at secondary tier |
| S103 | Reinsurance shifts tail risk without touching adverse selection | R2 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL (labelled the researcher's inference) |
| S104 | Hybrid life/LTC products, dominant since ~2014, pitched at 500K–5M net worth | R2 | CONFIRMED at secondary tier |
| S105 | §5 headline: Indiana confirms the hypothesis; Texas can't be tested | R2 | OVERSTATED — "confirms" outruns the file's own "CONSISTENT WITH (n=1, correlational, confounded)" |
| S106 | Indiana waitlist ~12,800 (2024) → over 17,000 (Feb 2026) | R2 | CONFIRMED at secondary tier |
| S107 | 34% HCBS per the state's report, ~23% per AARP's Scorecard | R2 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL (discrepancy disclosed) |
| S108 | Well below the ~53% national average | R2 | CONFIRMED at secondary tier |
| S109 | Texas excluded from the two leading national trackers for data-accuracy reasons | R2 | CONFIRMED at secondary tier |
| S110 | Its own 2015 data shows ~95% duplicate-listing inflation | R2 | CONFIRMED at secondary tier |
| S111 | §6/§9 headline: rule dead twice over; state law more durable but enforcement lags | R2 | CONFIRMED |
| S112 | Vacated by two courts, 10-year moratorium, rescinded eff. Feb 2026 | R2 | CORRECTED on "10-year"; rest CONFIRMED |
| S113 | 38 states + DC already exceeded the old federal floor | R2 | OVERSTATED — see P108 |
| S114 | A 2025 Health Affairs 22-state panel: mandates raised direct-care staffing ~5%, no closure effect | R2 | CORRECTED (date) — published in the March 3, 2026 issue; findings CONFIRMED at author-institution tier |
| S115 | New York: ~400 violating facilities, essentially no penalties for years | R2 | CONFIRMED at secondary tier |
| S116 | PE ownership: +11% causal mortality, >7M Medicare patients | R2 | CORRECTED on the sample size (4.2M); effect CONFIRMED |
| S117 | §7 headline: two GAO reports eight years apart confirm the same undercounting gap; fix not until 2027 | R2 | OVERSTATED — the two reports document different gaps (incidents vs. spending data) |
| S118 | GAO-18-179 (2018): 26 of 48 studied states couldn't report critical-incident counts | R2 | CONFIRMED (GAO, verbatim: "Twenty-six state Medicaid agencies could not report…") |
| S119 | GAO-26-107884 (2026) confirms the gap persists | R2 | CORRECTED — that report is on federal spending and Medicaid coverage; it makes no incident-reporting finding |
| S120 | It flags the $12B Medicare+Medicaid AL spending figure as "likely an undercount" | R2 | CONFIRMED (GAO, verbatim) |
| S121 | A CMS rule requiring annual state incident reporting doesn't take effect until 2027 at the earliest | R2 | CONFIRMED at secondary tier |
| S122 | Medicaid's services-only AL footprint ~18–20% of residents | R2 | UNVERIFIABLE at primary tier |
| S123 | No clean time series exists to quantify AL's own growth | R2 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL (V5 negative, self-disclosed) |
| S124 | §8 headline: valuation can't be pinned to one number; health/labor evidence is solid and getting worse | R2 | OVERSTATED on "getting worse" — red team #19 downgraded the trend to pandemic-confounded |
| S125 | AARP's own figure moved $350B (2006) → $600B (2021) → $1.01T (2024) | R2 | CONFIRMED at secondary tier |
| S126 | Two independent estimates "for a comparable era" (CBO $234B, RAND $522B) diverge by more than 2× | R2 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL — and the correct framing the whitepaper drops (see P140) |
| S127 | Cash & Counseling (1998–2003) is one of the only true RCTs in the domain | R2 | CONFIRMED |
| S128 | Treatment caregivers reported less strain and better health | R2 | CONFIRMED at secondary tier (ASPE/Mathematica) |
| S129 | The mechanism was closing an unmet-need gap, not efficiency | R2 | CONFIRMED at secondary tier |
| S130 | Costs ran higher in year one (AR +17%, FL +14%) | R2 | UNVERIFIABLE at primary tier |
| S131 | CDC BRFSS: caregivers' mental-health gap widened from 2015–16 to 2021–22 | R2 | UNVERIFIABLE at primary tier (cdc.gov blocked) |
| S132 | §10 headline: Germany, Japan, Netherlands all under real current strain | R2 | CONFIRMED at secondary tier |
| S133 | Germany's contribution rate rose again for 2025; federal loans needed to hold 2026 rates steady | R2 | UNVERIFIABLE — sourced to a German consumer-finance blog |
| S134 | Workforce vacancies up 110% against 45% demand growth | R2 | CORRECTED (citation) — attributed to NBER/Geyer; NBER w31870 has no vacancy data |
| S135 | Japan projects a 570,000-worker shortfall by 2040 and is already proposing copay increases | R2 | UNVERIFIABLE at primary tier — but the record's "proposing" is right where P161's "raising" is wrong |
| S136 | The Netherlands projects a 266,000-worker shortfall by 2035 | R2 | UNVERIFIABLE at primary tier |
| S137 | Japan's favorable reputation traces substantially to one clustered research lineage | R2 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL (flag retained, completeness disclaimed per red team #20) |
| S138 | §11 headline: C&C is the only architecture with real trial evidence; the rest measured research effort | R2 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| S139 | Nine architectures on five anchored objectives, across three scoring passes | R2 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| S140 | C&C is the only RCT-backed architecture and wins decisively under caregiver-relief weighting | R2 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| S141 | Its own RCT documented a cost increase, correcting cost-containment 3 → 1 | R2 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| S142 | A third pass, structurally blinded, moved 25 of 40 ranked cells | R2 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| S143 | High scores required cited evidence while low scores accepted its absence | R2 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| S144 | Twenty cells at 1 or 2 rested on no evidence; corrected, 30 of 40 sit at neutral | R2 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL (independently recounted) |
| S145 | The private-LTC-reform "ranks last with no exceptions" claim is withdrawn | R2 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| S146 | Four of that row's five cells were empty; last place survives only under the unamended scale | R2 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| S147 | The wage floor loses its workforce lead under both readings, tying the unstructured-cash comparator | R2 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| S148 | "Deviations log … 21 entries" | R3 | CORRECTED — the committed log has 31 |
| S149–S167 | The 19 published deviations digest rows (covering entries 1–21 and 30–31) | R3 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL as summaries of their source entries; entries 22–29 are absent from the published page |
| S168 | Red team: 22 attacks run as a Workflow (four attack/defend groups plus re-score, reconciliation, synthesis) | R4 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| S169 | "This log is the authoritative correction layer" | R4 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| S170–S191 | The 22 published attack/verdict pairs | R4 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL against red-team-log.md; substantive claims inside them are carried at S085–S147 and in ledger-record.md |
| S192 | A fresh scorer blind to the original numbers re-scored all nine architectures | R4 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL — with the S011/S197 correction attached |
| S193 | Three cells differed by ≥2 points and were reconciled | R4 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| S194 | C&C cost-containment corrected 3 → 1 | R4 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| S195 | Federal AL standard workforce-sustainability corrected 1 → 3 | R4 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| S196 | OAA/NFCSP cost-containment corrected 4 → 2 | R4 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| S197 | Correction, 2026-08-10: the earlier re-score was instruction-blinded, not structurally blinded | R4 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| S198 | The structurally blinded pass "moved 26 of the 40 ranked cells" | R4 | CORRECTED — it differed on 26 and moved 25; every other statement on both pages says 25 |
| S199 | All three earlier corrections were independently re-derived, so they stand | R4 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| S200 | "Private LTC insurance market reform still ranks last under every weighting" is withdrawn | R4 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| S201 | Four of that row's five cells rested on no evidence either way | R4 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| S202 | Both readings published side by side in ws11-rescore-log.md |
R4 | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| S203 | Receipts: 11-workstream protocol (9 executed to findings) | Footer | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| S204 | Receipts: deviations log (31 entries) | Footer | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL — contradicts S148 on the same page |
| S205 | Receipts: full red team applied (22 items, 3 reconciled cells) | Footer | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| S206 | Receipts: second structurally blinded re-score (25 of 40 moved, one headline withdrawn, both readings published) | Footer | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
| S207 | Status: "Red-teamed; PACE unscored" | Footer | CONFIRMED-INTERNAL |
Public-page coverage: 425 extracted · 425 verdicts · 0 unaddressed.