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GBMT-9 · Research record · No. 9

Moving-targets log (GBMT-9)

media/research/moving-targets-log.md
This is a working research document from the media filing, published as written — including the parts later corrected. It is the underlying record for Whitepaper No. 9, not a summary of it.

The media filing's Phase 0 and execution passes (2026-08-03) flagged several claims as time-sensitive moving targets. This log records dated re-checks. Dated findings files are snapshots and are not rewritten; the live site pages and the protocol's anchor table receive bracketed, dated updates where a published claim materially changed.

Re-check 2026-08-04

# Target Status Detail Page edit
1 FCC national ownership cap vote UNCHANGED Still scheduled for the Aug 6 2026 Open Meeting; draft R&O unrevised since Jul 16; Commissioner Gomez dissenting, ATVA opposing; litigation expected only post-vote None — the filing already date-stamps this
2 Florida SB 7072 remand CHANGED Judge Hinkle (N.D. Fla.) denied both sides' summary judgment Jun 18-19 2026, rejecting Florida's argument that the First Amendment doesn't reach platform editorial decisions; trial set Sept 8 2026 (caption now NetChoice v. Uthmeier) Live page Part 6 updated with trial date
3 Texas HB 20 remand CHANGED (procedural) Judge Pitman denied Texas's stay motion May 6 2026; injunction-scope question still undecided, briefing ongoing — [Verification Phase 1, 2026-08-10: not confirmable. The RECAP docket for NetChoice v. Paxton, W.D. Tex. 1:21-cv-00840 (219 documents), records no order in May 2026; its 2026 entries are Jan 30, Feb 24–25, Jun 29–30 and Jul 9. The only stay ruling on the docket is a grant, 2025-04-16, pending possible legislative action. Scope briefing closed 2025-09-10 and a "forthcoming order" was signalled 2026-07-09.] Live page Part 6 updated
4 California Google journalism deal CHANGED — prior page claim stale The enacted FY2026-27 budget (signed Jun 29 2026) restored **10M/yr × 2years * *totheCivicMediaFund, matcheddollar − for − dollarbyGoogle( 20-40M program; grants capped $250k/newsroom) — survived at roughly 8× reduced scale from the original $175M vision, not zeroed as the January proposal implied and as the filing's anchor row asserted Anchor row 10 + sources page corrected with dated update
5 NY Empire State media jobs program NO UPDATE FOUND ESD estimated certificates "early June 2026"; no awards list or press coverage located as of this check None — "too early to tell" stands; re-check when ESD publishes
6 Australia News Bargaining Incentive CHANGED Bill finalized Aug 3 2026 (2.5% levy on local digital ad revenue for platforms without news deals), to be introduced next parliamentary sitting — still not enacted Anchor row 7 updated with dated note
7 Meta's Canada news ban UNCHANGED Ban in effect; talks entangled with broader trade negotiations; MEO (~Jul 2026) reports FB/IG news engagement down 85% None
8 Nexstar-Tegna litigation UNCHANGED (core) E.D. Cal. preliminary injunction (Apr 17 2026) still bars integration; Ninth Circuit appeal unargued. Separate: D.C. Circuit dismissed Free Press's challenge to the FCC approval Jul 9 2026 — does not affect the California injunction None

Sources for each row are recorded in the re-check research transcript; load-bearing changed items (rows 2, 4, 6) were reported with primary/court or government-announcement sourcing.

Standing re-checks queued: the FCC vote outcome (after Aug 6 2026); the Florida trial (after Sept 8 2026); NY's first-cycle awards (when ESD publishes); Australia's NBI passage.

Re-check 2026-08-06

# Target Status Detail Page edit
1 FCC national ownership cap vote DECIDED The FCC voted 2-1 on Aug 6 2026 (Carr, Trusty for; Gomez dissenting) to repeal the 39% national television ownership cap, replacing it with case-by-case public-interest review of individual transactions. Gomez's dissent: Congress set the cap in statute and only Congress can raise or eliminate it — the anticipated litigation theory. Pre-vote reporting had anticipated exactly this outcome Live page Part 4 updated with a dated outcome bracket
2 Australia NBI CHANGED Bill finalized Aug 3 2026 (Treasury ministers' release): 2.5% levy base narrowed with rate raised; scope extended to professional-networking platforms; regional/small-publisher distribution loading doubled 10%→20% and a small-publisher (<$150k) grants program added — post-consultation design changes that respond directly to the incumbent-capture critique this filing documented. Introduction expected early Spring session; still not enacted Anchor row 7's bracket already covers "finalized, pending introduction"; the distribution-loading detail added to the log only
3 NY ESD award results NOT YET ESD's page: portal closed for 2025 tax year, next window Spring 2027; no awards release found None
4 WA Cares payout data NOT YET Benefits payable since Jul 1 2026; no claims/payout data published by DSHS/ESD as of this check (~5 weeks in) — relevant to GBMT-7's honesty box when it lands None

Standing re-checks queued: litigation against the cap repeal (expected imminently); the Florida NetChoice trial (Sept 8 2026); NY awards; Australia NBI passage; WA Cares first data release.

Re-check 2026-10-20

First re-check in about 11 weeks. Findings were gathered by two research passes (US legal; programs abroad) and the load-bearing items were re-verified against a second source by the primary session; confidence is stated per row. Several primary pages (court dockets, APH, Treasury) were not reachable, so "NO UPDATE FOUND" rows are absence-of-evidence findings, not confirmations.

# Target Status Detail Page edit
1 FCC national ownership cap repeal CHANGED (agency stage only) FCC released the final order text Oct 1 2026 (Free Press release). Ten state/regional cable associations petitioned the FCC for a stay and injunction pending judicial review on Oct 2, saying they will seek a court stay if the FCC has not ruled by Federal Register publication (Light Reading; The Desk). A Free Press-led coalition of unions and press groups (with Democracy Forward) filed an FCC stay petition on Oct 9. All argue only Congress can change the statutory cap. No court petition for review and no stay ruling found. Order's Federal Register publication and effective date not confirmed (sources conflict). Part 4 dated bracket added
2 Florida NetChoice v. Uthmeier NO UPDATE FOUND The Jun 18-19 summary-judgment denial is confirmed (NetChoice, MLex). The "trial Sept 8 2026" date recorded in the Aug 4 re-check could not be re-confirmed from any source, and no report of a trial, continuance or ruling was found. Treat the Sept 8 date as unverified. (CourtListener docket returned 403.) None: the page already says "awaiting trial" with no date
3 Texas HB 20 remand NO UPDATE FOUND No 2026 district-court ruling found. The Aug 4 row's "stay denied May 6 2026" claim (already flagged unconfirmable in Verification Phase 1) is still unconfirmed. A Fifth Circuit opinion of Jul 24 2026 concerns Texas HB 18, a different law, and may be the origin of the confusion. None
4 Nexstar-Tegna CHANGED Ninth Circuit appeal of the Apr 17 injunction (No. 26-2490): argument reported set for Nov 17 2026, Pasadena, per The Desk (Oct 15, citing court records; single outlet, and the same article notes it may be decided on the briefs). Injunction remains: Nexstar may hold Tegna's stations but must operate separately. The deal itself closed within hours of FCC approval (Mar 2026). Aug 2026: E.D. Cal. found the injunction violated by Nexstar executives sitting on Tegna's board and ordered the board reconstituted (reported by MLex and The Desk, not independently verified). Part 4 dated bracket added
5 Australia News Bargaining Incentive CHANGED (passed Parliament) Introduced Aug 13; passed Parliament Aug 20 2026 at 2.5% (up from 2.25% in the draft) on platforms above A$250M Australian ad revenue (The Next Web, Aug 20; government release headed "...become law"). Royal assent not confirmed by us (one search snippet gives Aug 26, Act no. 77 of 2026: unverified). **One outlet (Mumbrella) reports 2.75% and different offsets, unreconciled.** Whether the 10%→20% loading and the sub-$150k grants survived into the passed text is unverified. Meta's FTA-breach complaint not withdrawn; no post-passage platform response found. Anchor row 7 dated bracket added
6 Meta's Canada news ban UNCHANGED Ban in effect. Ottawa said in Jan 2026 it is open to a deal ("very preliminary" talks). MEO (Jun 30 2026): only 41% of Facebook and 26% of Instagram users know the ban exists. An Oct 12 opinion column says the PM signalled openness to revisiting the law; US lists it as a trade irritant ahead of the USMCA review. No deal or amendment found. None
7 California Civic Media Program CHANGED (launched; no awards yet) Governor's release Jul 14 2026: grants up to $250,000 per newsroom (one-time), state funding of $20M over two additional years (consistent with the recorded $10M/yr x 2), matched by Google. Applications closed Aug 21 2026; recipients "to be announced in fall 2026." No recipient list found as of Oct 20. (A research-pass summary mis-stated the total as $20M including Google; the release says the state's $20M is what Google matches.) None
8 NY Empire State media jobs program NO UPDATE FOUND Launch confirmed (applications opened Feb 24 2026, cap $30M/yr, through 2027). No awards list or counts found. The recorded "next window Spring 2027" wording was neither confirmed nor contradicted. None
9 WA Cares payout data NOT YET Benefits payable since Jul 1 2026. No claims, payout or utilization figures found from DSHS, ESD or the WA Cares Fund through Oct 20 (dashboards not directly inspected). Still relevant to GBMT-7's honesty box when it lands. None

Possible discrepancy for a later pass (not edited): the live page says the Florida summary-judgment order was issued "without stating its reasons," while NetChoice's Jun 19 post says the court "rejected Florida's First Amendment defense." Worth reconciling against the order itself.

Standing re-checks queued: FCC order Federal Register publication and any court petition for review or stay; Ninth Circuit Nexstar-Tegna argument (Nov 17) and ruling; Florida trial date and outcome (check the docket directly); Texas HB 20 scope ruling (check PACER/RECAP directly); NBI royal assent and passed-text provisions; California grant recipients (fall 2026); NY awards; WA Cares first data release.

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