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GBMT-9 · Research record · No. 9

§14 Prospective evidence check — demand-side local-news support

media/research/ws14-voucher-evidence.md
This is a working research document from the media filing, published as written — including the parts later corrected. It is the underlying record for Whitepaper No. 9, not a summary of it.

Date: 2026-08-06. Scope: architecture #5 (subscriptions, vouchers, and credits). This late pass does not change a scorecard cell; a revised row needs the required independent re-score.

Two independent randomized US studies find that making a local digital-news subscription free did not materially create use or civic outcomes:

These tests are close proxies rather than refundable vouchers, and their settings are limited. Together, however, they refute a flat, low-salience free-subscription mechanism as an evidenced route to expanding local-news use. Price relief alone is not enough.

The separate claim that a flat voucher would disproportionately fund national incumbents rather than undercovered counties remains indeterminate. Neither experiment reports payment destination by outlet size, ownership, or news-desert geography. Canada's former credit was a small, non-refundable post-purchase credit (15% of up to C$500, closed after 2024), and no causal allocation, staffing, or coverage evaluation was located. CRA.

Design implication

If #5 remains on the board, test a geographically targeted refundable credit through randomized phase-in. Publish redemption by outlet size, ownership, and county; measure newsroom FTE and local-government coverage against matched non-pilot areas. That is the missing test for both payment allocation and coverage supply.

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