Freeze point: mental-health/docs/research-inquiry.md as of protocol draft 2026-08-09 (commit carrying the GBMT-11 protocol on main). Per M6, each divergence from the frozen protocol is recorded with its effect. Entries are one line each.
| # | Date | Deviation | Reason | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2026-08-11 | Protocol freeze recorded at Phase 0 close rather than at execution open (empty log at start). | Prior Claude session claimed the lane and hit a session limit before writing freeze + findings; this pass re-opened primary sources and freezes the 2026-08-09 protocol text as the commitment. | Freeze is retrospective to protocol draft; no protocol text was altered mid-pass. |
| 2 | 2026-08-11 | Anchor 8 prior (“~1/3 of working-age awards”) replaced by SSA awards share 12.7% (2023 disabled-worker awards). | SSA DI ASR Chart 10 / awards-by-diagnosis table contradicts the circulating prior. | H8 award-share leg must be rewritten before support; stock % and access–award links handed to §8 / GBMT-12. |
| 3 | 2026-08-11 | Contemporary bed figure carried as state-hospital staffed beds only (TAC 2016: 11.7/100k), not whole-system psych beds. | Protocol prior band was definition-sensitive; Phase 0 found no clean all-payer staffed inventory in the gate pass. | §3 must not treat 10–15/100k as whole-system supply; NRI/SAMHSA inventory still owed. |
| 4 | 2026-08-11 | H2 acceptance leg rests on one strong NAMCS root (Bishop 2014) plus secondary HRSA citations, not yet two independent methods. | Phase 0 gate verified the prior is live; full H2 support needs secret-shopper/claims in §2. | H2 remains open (acceptance leg live); KC1 still fires on the missing national by-payer series. |
| 5 | 2026-08-11 | 988 “doubled” prior accepted as directionally true via monthly KPI pairs and GAO volume growth, not a single official annual multiplier. | No single SAMHSA “2× in two years” headline series; Jan-to-Jan answered contacts ~2.5× (2022→2024). | H4 volume leg supported; diversion leg still thin pending §4. |
| 6 | 2026-08-11 | H1 supported without a second survey series for AMI/SMI at >1.5× vs NSDUH. | NHIS lacks AMI/SMI; support uses locked AMI vs SMI (~4.2×) within NSDUH plus flat 2021–2024 prevalence. | Definitional-sensitivity leg holds; literal cross-survey criterion marked partial in §1. |
| 7 | 2026-08-11 | H2 Method 2 (Brahmbhatt secret-shopper) has no commercial comparator arm. | Study limitation; commercial wedge rests on Bishop NAMCS same-frame contrast. | H2 still Supported (two methods show Medicaid usable access <50%); disclose commercial gap on Method 2. |
| 8 | 2026-08-11 | Contemporary bed supply locked as two constructs (state-hospital ~10.8/100k; HCRIS whole-hospital ~28.4/100k), not one band. | Phase 0 owed whole-system inventory; McBain 2025 HCRIS delivers it with different magnitude than TAC. | Scorecard must name construct; Phase 0 deviation 3 narrowed further. |
| 9 | 2026-08-11 | H3 supported on statutory/CMS “cannot purchase” path despite McBain null on waiver-state bed counts. | Formal criterion’s OR branch met; comparative waiver evaluations thin. | Do not claim §1115 MH waivers have already raised Construct B supply. |
| 10 | 2026-08-11 | Post-2014 national MH spend uses Commonwealth/IHME 2019 Medicaid dollars as supporting, not BHSUA replacement. | No newer SAMHSA BHSUA payer table or clean NHEA MH line located. | Spending cells cite vintage explicitly. |
| 11 | 2026-08-11 | H4 diversion leg treats mobile-crisis / BHCC ED studies as continuum evidence, not 988 refute. | Formal criterion requires multi-state 988 causal diversion; those studies are different instruments. | Architecture #5 may still cite continuum steelman in §7. |
| 12 | 2026-08-11 | H5 “material” supply response includes modest Allegheny elasticity (0.16) plus CCBHC PPS access package. | Protocol did not define elasticity magnitude; two independent change designs show detectable response. | Do not claim fee bumps alone close H2 acceptance gap. |
| 13 | 2026-08-11 | Anchor 10 verified with mandatory May 2025 nonenforcement disclosure. | ERIC litigation / Departments statement paused new 2024-rule enforcement. | Scorecard must date-stamp “2024 rule teeth.” |
| 14 | 2026-08-11 | KC3 fires even though EBSA CAA reviews reach some ERISA plans. | Protocol KC3 targets exams generating most compliance evidence; state exams miss self-funded majority. | O4 commercial = band-only / unknown with federal spot-check caveat. |
| 15 | 2026-08-11 | H7 international leg uses qualitative OECD bed dispersion + peer cases, not a fitted outpatient-controlled boarding regression. | No clean multi-country joint bed/outpatient/boarding series located this pass. | Criterion (a) met directionally; disclose non-modelled. |
| 16 | 2026-08-11 | H8 adjudicated Not supported as written; awards plurality path dead at 12.7%; overflow-valve rewritten as access→applications pathway (Swenson). | Phase 0 deviation 2 + SSA Chart 10; scarcity→awards fails direction test. | Seam language: 12.7% awards / ~28.6% stock (GBMT-12); no one-third-of-awards. |
| 17 | 2026-08-11 | Protocol §3 qualitative weight emphases committed as numeric vectors summing to 1.0 (W1 0.30/0.30/0.20/0.15/0.05; W2 0.35/0.05/0.15/0.35/0.10; W3 0.10/0.20/0.30/0.10/0.30). | M6 requires explicit weightings for rank-stability; protocol named emphasis only. | Rankings in ws09-scorecard.md are reproducible; vector choice is a logged judgment. |
| 18 | 2026-08-11 | Scorecard uses symmetric evidence floor (below-neutral requires cited failure; absence → 3), matching elder-care pass-3 / housing-media-drugs correction — not an asymmetric “no support → 2” reading. | M6 childcare failure mode + HANDOFF scale-asymmetry warning; protocol did not freeze band text. | Unevidenced rows (#8/#9) float at 3 rather than inventing 1s/2s; do-nothing 2s rest on documented status-quo shortfalls. |
| 19 | 2026-08-11 | Measurement infrastructure (national by-payer wait/acceptance series) not scored as an architecture row among protocol §8 list 1–10. | Red-team Attack 7: KC1 makes measurement the headline shape; VA standards are the precedent (ws07); inventing a full #11 mid-pass without an evaluation package would invent cells. | Honesty box names missing row; whitepaper / next pass must score it or record explicit exclusion. |
| 20 | 2026-08-11 | Red-team cell moves: #2 O1 5→4, O2 4→3; #6 O1 4→3. | Attacks 1 and 5: Mathematica wait metrics match band 4 not 5 (DY4 softening; clinic-reported); required crisis scope + heterogeneous ED DID ≠ O2=4; NQTL corrections ≠ §2 realized-access proxy for O1. | “CCBHC leads all three” withdrawn — #5 leads W1; #2 leads W2/W3. #6 W2 swing narrowed. |
| 21 | 2026-08-11 | Structurally blinded re-score reconciled: 7 cells moved (#4 O2 4→3, O5 3→4; #6 O5 2→3; #7 O1 4→3, O2 3→4; #8 O5 4→3; #10 O1 2→3); #3 O2 kept at 4 vs blind 3; #9 O1/O3 kept at 3 as judgment splits vs blind 2s. | M6/M10 batch msgbatch_013vUDQ6mt6JV8mz2H95zfsx; evidence rooted in ws02–ws07 (need≠instrument; O1≠hospitalization OR; O1 OR includes crisis path; O5 wash on EBSA/CoCM). Full table in ws09-rescore-log.md. |
#5/#2 leadership and #10 pole hold; AOT W2 near-top withdrawn; #3≡#7 and #8≡#9 numerically; scorecard → pass 2. |