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GBMT-11 · Research record · No. 11

GBMT-11 Phase 0 source register

mental-health/research/phase0-source-register.md
This is a working research document from the mental health filing, published as written — including the parts later corrected. It is the underlying record for Whitepaper No. 11, not a summary of it.

As of: 2026-08-11. Primary publishers preferred (SAMHSA, SSA, CMS, CRS, GAO). Advocacy sources are labeled and used only where they are the circulating root of a claim under test. This is an anchor register, not a §1–§8 bibliography.

ID Source Type / vintage What it establishes Limits
S1 SAMHSA, 2024 NSDUH Annual National Report (HTML) Federal survey report, released Jul 2025 (2024 data year) Adult AMI 23.4% / 61.5M; SMI 5.6% / 14.6M; AMI/SMI definitions (DSM-IV criteria + functional impairment; prediction model 2008–2012 clinical interviews); unmet-need among untreated AMI 21.0% / 6.1M AMI/SMI are model outputs, not direct clinical diagnoses; DSM-5 calibration in progress
S2 SAMHSA, 2024 NSDUH Highlights PDF Federal highlights, 2025 Same AMI/SMI headline figures; treatment receipt 52.1% of AMI / 70.8% of SMI Condensed; use S1 for definitions
S3 SAMHSA press release, 2024 NSDUH release (2025-07-28) Agency press Confirms release date and headline AMI/SMI figures Not a methods source
S4 Bishop, Press, Keyhani & Pincus, “Acceptance of Insurance by Psychiatrists…” JAMA Psychiatry 2014 Peer-reviewed, NAMCS 2009–2010 Psychiatrists Medicaid acceptance 43.1% vs 73.0% other physicians; private noncapitated 55.3% vs 88.7% Office-based physicians; ~15 years old; not therapists
S5 HRSA, State of the Behavioral Health Workforce 2024 / 2025 brief Federal workforce brief Circulates ~48-day national average wait (cited to National Council 2025); psychiatrist Medicaid acceptance still cited in mid-40s Wait figure is not a federal administrative series; acceptance cites secondary
S6 GAO, GAO-22-104597 Congressional audit, 2022 Documents in-network MH access challenges; no national by-payer median wait series published Qualitative + lit review, not a wait census
S7 HHS OIG, OEI-02-22-00050 Inspector General, 2024 Notes CMS MA 30-business-day routine behavioral wait standard and proposed Medicaid managed-care secret-shopper rules Standards ≠ measured national medians
S8 Treatment Advocacy Center, Going, Going, Gone (2016) Advocacy survey 2016 staffed state-hospital beds 37,679 / 11.7 per 100k; 1955 peak table 558,922 / 337 per 100k Advocacy org; state-hospital construct only
S9 Treatment Advocacy Center / Torrey, The Shortage of Public Hospital Beds… Advocacy, ~2008 Explicit “95 percent of the beds available in 1955 were no longer available in 2005” framing (558,239 → 52,539 public beds) Same public-bed construct; citogenesis root for the 95% claim
S10 CRS, IF10222 — Medicaid’s IMD Exclusion Congressional Research Service, as of 2025-01-14 IMD exclusion still default law; Table 1 lists approved MH §1115 IMD states (patchwork, not repeal) Perishable — re-check before any whitepaper ship
S11 CMS, SMI/SED Section 1115 Demonstration Opportunity Agency guidance page Lists approved SMI/SED demo states; SMDL #18-011 framework Page inventory can lag CRS Table 1
S12 Vibrant Emotional Health, 988 Network KPI extracts (Jan 2022, Jan 2024) Lifeline administrator KPIs Jan 2022 answered 161,267 network contacts (ex-VCL) vs Jan 2024 403,544 Monthly snapshots; not a diversion evaluation
S13 GAO, GAO-26-108114 Congressional audit, 2026 ~19.1M contacts routed Jul 2022–Sep 2025; call volume +87%; answer rates improved; SAMHSA capacity metrics = volume/answer/ASA No causal ED/arrest diversion finding
S14 KFF, 988 Two Years After Launch Policy tracker, 2024 Monthly contacts >0.5M; ~80% above May 2022; in-state answer rates vary widely Secondary compilation of SAMHSA/Vibrant figures
S15 SSA, Annual Statistical Report on the DI Program, 2023 — Chart 10 / awards by diagnosis Federal statistical report Disabled-worker awards 2023: mental disorders 12.7%; musculoskeletal 34.0%; neoplasms 13.6% Awards ≠ beneficiary stock
S16 SSA, DI ASR 2024 — Table 69 distribution aged 18–64 Federal statistical report Large absolute mental-disorder caseloads (e.g. depressive/bipolar ≈1.23M; intellectual disorders ≈1.23M among published 18–64 rows) Full denominator for stock % not archived offline this pass; hand to GBMT-12
S17 Carlos et al., “Low availability, long wait times…” Gen Hosp Psychiatry 2023 Peer-reviewed secret-shopper (5 states) Median wait 67 days in-person / 43 telepsychiatry; 18.5% available for new patients Not national; not by-payer series

Search record for negative-result / kill anchors

Anchor Search / scope Result Status
2 ★ / KC1 — national wait or new-patient acceptance by payer as a federal or ≥80%-pop series CMS, SAMHSA, HRSA, GAO product searches; OIG network-adequacy report; AMN/Merritt Hawkins and National Council as circulating non-federal roots No CMS/SAMHSA/HRSA administrative series located. Circulating waits are vendor/association. CMS has standards, not a measured national median series by payer. KC1 fires
4 ★ / KC2 — independent whole-system bed-decline roots TAC reports, NRI/CMHS public-bed lineage, OECD comparisons Circulating 95% / 558k figures trace to TAC public/state-hospital arithmetic; 1955≠modern whole-system construct KC2 fires
H4 diversion leg GAO-26-108114, KFF 988 tracker, Vibrant KPIs Volume/answer metrics abundant; no multi-state causal ED/arrest diversion series located Open for §4; does not block Phase 0
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